Thursday-Friday Weather
Low pressure over central Illinois this morning will track northeast into Canada, north of Lake Ontario, by this evening.
A warm front associated with the low has already spread precipitation into the Finger Lakes. While most areas are above freezing and seeing just plain rain, there are colder pockets across the southern and eastern parts of the region that are seeing some ice this morning.
Freezing rain will decrease as temperatures rise, and by the mid to late morning, icing will cease to be a concern. Steadier rain will persist into the late morning or midday but will become more sporadic for the afternoon. There could even be a few breaks of sunshine late.
Temperatures will slowly rise, reaching the low and mid 40s for most of the region this afternoon. Areas further west, such as Rochester and Dansville, will increase to near 50 degrees late in the day. During the evening hours, that core of warm air will move eastward across the region.
Many areas will reach 50 degrees this evening, but a cold front will bring another round of showers and cooler temperatures overnight. By Friday morning, most areas will be between 35-40 degrees.
Winds will be blustery today, especially over higher elevations. The wind direction will shift subtly from south-southeast to due south, and then to the southwest overnight behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.
West-southwest winds will remain blustery into Friday, though most of the Finger Lakes region will not see gusts over 30 mph. Stronger winds are expected in the Rochester area.
Skies will be cloudy on Friday, though only a few spits of drizzle or perhaps a stray flurry are expected during the daytime hours. Temperatures will only rise a little, with highs in the low and mid 40s.
Temperatures will drop through the 30s Friday evening and into the mid and upper 20s overnight. Areas of lake effect snow showers are likely as winds turn to the northwest. Accumulations should be limited, with a coating to locally an inch or so through Saturday morning.
Staying Mild
Saturday will transition from lake effect flurries in the morning to some sunshine in the afternoon. Winds will undergo a shift from the northwest to the south, though for the afternoon, winds may just go calm for a time.
Temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal averages, yet easily the coldest of the upcoming days. Look for highs in the mid 30s.
On Sunday, an area of low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Some thin clouds on the periphery of this system may move in, filtering our sunshine. Nonetheless, temperatures should make it into the mid 40s with no precipitation day or night.
Monday is also expected to be dry, but clouds look plentiful. Temperatures will be similar to Sunday, starting in the 20s and rising into the 40s.
Tuesday is the best chance for another sun-filled day, though at this distance in time, there is, of course, uncertainty in that coming to fruition. Highs should remain in the mid 40s.
The next weather system will roll in for the middle of next week with rain showers and warmer air on Wednesday. Highs should at least flirt with 50 degrees. Even warmer air will be possible Thursday and possibly into early Friday.
At some point late next week, a sharp cold front will move through, causing temperatures to nosedive briefly. Saturday looks to be the target for the core of this cold, with highs likely stuck in the 20s. Next Friday, meanwhile, will be a day of great change in this scenario.
Temperatures should return to the 40s as soon as next Sunday and into the following week, though the spread in the models is significantly large enough that temperatures could end up a bit colder, or even warmer.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
