Thursday-Friday Weather
A stalled frontal boundary is draped from west to east across the Finger Lakes this morning.
The steady mixed precipitation from last night is well out of the area, leaving behind just fog and areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle this morning. Temperatures range from the mid 20s near Rochester to the mid 30s between Elmira and Binghamton, with most of the area just a degree or two on either side of the freezing mark at 32 degrees.
A weak low riding along the front is pulling warmer air up through western Pennsylvania. Some of this should make it into the southern half of the Finger Lakes today, but the cold air to the north will hold tight.
This will set up a wide variety of temperatures today. Parts of the Southern Tier should be into the 50s, while areas north of I-90 will stay near or below freezing. The sharpest gradient will set up between the northern and southern ends of the lakes. As an example, at some point this afternoon, Watkins Glen may be near 50 degrees, while Geneva is closer to 35 degrees.
Precipitation will be sparse during the daytime hours, though areas of fog are likely to persist and the occasional spit of drizzle will be likely. For areas near or below freezing, this could result in some slick spots on untreated surfaces.
A little sun may be possible this afternoon in the warmer, southern half of the region. With the front stalled out overhead, winds will be nearly calm and from variable directions today.
Tonight, a cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers will accompany the front, and again, some freezing rain will be possible north of I-90. This precipitation should be brief and light.
Lake effect snow will develop after midnight as winds turn to the northwest and increase. A spray of flurries and embedded squalls is likely overnight and into early Friday morning. Locally an inch or two may fall.
Winds will increase to 15 mph or greater with gusts of 30-40 mph commonplace, especially Friday morning and early afternoon. These northwest winds will bring in cold air, with temperatures falling to the mid 20s by sunrise, and then to around 20 degrees Friday afternoon.
The lake effect will gradually diminish but is unlikely to fully end Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Not until winds turn more southerly well after midnight Friday will the snows move north, out of the Finger Lakes. Locally another inch or two will fall Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
Weekend Weather, Active Monday-Tuesday
The shift to light southerly winds early Saturday will be in advance of a small, quick moving weather system. Clouds and some light snow showers will move through Saturday morning as this system races east across the region.
Snow accumulation on Saturday will be limited to around an inch, all falling during the morning hours. By the afternoon, some sunshine may start to break through the overcast.
Temperatures will be warmest across the Southern Tier, where mid and even upper 30s will be possible. To the northeast, towards Syracuse, mid 20s are more likely. Most of the Finger Lakes will be around 30 degrees.
With a period of clear skies Saturday evening, temperatures will quickly fall into the 10s. Some locally colder pockets will be possible, depending on terrain and snow cover. Southerly winds will kick back up overnight, and temperatures will rise slightly by Sunday morning. Most areas should start around 20 degrees.
Sunday will be quiet and dry. While there will be some breaks of sun, the clouds will probably be more plentiful. Temperatures will push into the 40s, especially if the sun comes out, but winds will shift back to the west, then northwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
The weather early next week is complex as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes and spawns a secondary low along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
Precipitation is highly likely Monday and Tuesday, especially Monday Night and early Tuesday. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the precipitation type, though models are currently trending towards more snow and less rain or ice.
Precipitation amounts are also highly uncertain, as shown in the almost even split between a no snow or light snow event, and a moderate to heavy event.
Be wary of premature hype but continue to monitor for updates as we draw closer to the event. As I mentioned above, this is a highly complex set up and the details shown on the models simply cannot be trusted this far out.
This system will wind down later Tuesday into Wednesday with some lake effect. Another storm system will be hot on its heels and will likely impact the region late in the week. The chances for snow look less with this second system, but being even further out, confidence is even lower.
The models favor near average temperatures as we head deeper into March, which means highs mostly in the 30s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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