Monday Details
A quick-moving weather system will bring a period of wintry weather to the Finger Lakes very late this afternoon and through the nighttime hours.
Out ahead of this system, some thin clouds are moving through the region this morning. Sunshine will mix with these clouds for several more hours before thicker clouds begin to move in.
Most of the afternoon will be dry, but cloudy. Some areas may see temperatures rise to the upper 30s, while most see highs in the mid 30s.
Snow will rapidly spread from west to east late this afternoon, with most areas seeing an onset time between 5-7 PM. Since the precipitation will be moving quickly, since the models do not have good agreement on the fine details of the timing, and since the models often struggle with timing in the first place, the estimated onset times only have a medium confidence rating.
Precipitation should start around 5 PM from Batavia to Dansville to Bath to Elmira. By 6 PM, the leading edge will be somewhere around Geneva to Ithaca to Binghamton. At 7 PM, the leading edge will move through Syracuse and clear the Finger Lakes region.
Snow will quickly become heavy once it starts with rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Snowfall rates may approach or exceed an inch per hour during the early evening.
A couple of hours after it begins, the snow will either let up in intensity or turn to sleet. The further south and west, the greater the likelihood for sleet, though most areas should see at least some during the evening hours.
Precipitation should turn back over to snow for some areas during the overnight, though areas of sleet, freezing rain, and possibly even non-freezing rain will also be possible. Light precipitation will persist into early Tuesday, resulting in areas of tricky travel. Most of the precipitation should end by or shortly after noon Tuesday.
Snow totals will be highly variable throughout the region. The highest amounts will be in the I-81 vicinity, in the hills around Elmira and Ithaca, and possibly southeast of Lake Ontario. These areas should see 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts.
Much of the rest of the area will see between 2-4 inches, with less to the far west. The greatest uncertainty comes during the late evening and overnight as snow tries to re-establish itself as the dominant precipitation type. How far southwest the snow makes inroads will impact the snow accumulations over the southwestern Finger Lakes. Elevation will play a role, and highly variable amounts should be expected, especially in those areas.
Freezing rain should be limited enough that only a localized glazing of ice is expected, though some areas could see up to an inch of sleet.
The wind will also become blustery tonight, coming in from the southeast with speeds of 10-15 mph. Gusts over higher elevations may peak around 35 mph.
Attention Turns to Friday
Weather conditions will improve Tuesday afternoon as temperatures rise to around 40 degrees once precipitation ends.
There may even be some sun late Tuesday as skies clear from west to east late in the day. Clear skies will only last a few hours Tuesday evening before new clouds move in overnight.
A weak system will bring a few rain and snow showers to the area on Wednesday. The precipitation should remain light and sporadic. South winds may become blustery for a time, especially across the southern half of the region.
Temperatures are a bit uncertain for Wednesday but should reach into the 40s. Some western or southern areas could see 50s.
A few lingering showers will be possible on Thursday, but most of the day will be quiet with highs around 40s.
There is a growing probability for a significant winter storm on Friday as low pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Currently, the odds for 8+ inches of snow in the Finger Lakes are around 50%, and the odds of at least 4 inches of snow are around 80%.
Sleet could make an entrance to cut down on snow totals some, and with a relatively small size, any slight adjustments in the storm track could change the forecast. Stay tuned for more, as this will be the main story of the week.
The weekend, at least, looks quiet behind this storm, with just a few lingering flurries early Saturday.
Generally cool conditions are expected throughout at least the first half of March.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
