Quiet Through Friday Afternoon
The weather will remain cloudy, cool, and quiet for the next couple of days before our next weather system rolls through Friday night.
A northwesterly flow remains in place between high pressure over central Canada and low pressure moving out over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The gradient between these two systems will not be as sharp as yesterday, so winds will not be quite as strong.
Still, wind speeds will be near or slightly over 10 mph and a few gusts may reach 30 mph, mainly between Elmira, Ithaca, and Binghamton.
The northwest flow over Lake Ontario, plus some added moisture for the retreating low, will keep clouds plentiful today. A few stray flurries or spits of drizzle cannot be ruled out but should be few and far between.
High temperatures will range from the upper 20s in some higher elevations, to a few mid 30s in some of the valley locations of the Southern Tier. Most areas will end up near or slightly above 30 degrees.
There will be little change tonight with abundant cloud cover and a few spits of precipitation here or there. Overnight lows will be in the low and mid 20s.
More clouds are expected on Thursday, though they may thin some later in the day. Precipitation will again be limited to a few flakes or drips of drizzle, mostly during the morning hours.
Northwest winds will persist, but with lighter speeds than 20s. Top gusts should be near or under 25 mph. Temperatures will respond by getting a degree or two higher than today, but most places will still be in the low 30s.
There may be a narrow window for some clear skies Thursday evening before new clouds ahead of the next system begin to move in. A few areas could slip into the 10s if the clearing develops, but otherwise, expect another night in the low 20s.
Late Friday, Early Next Week Snow Chances
Friday morning will remain dry, but snow will start to become possible toward the afternoon hours as low pressure tracks across Pennsylvania.
The core of the heaviest snow is expected to stay across northern and central Pennsylvania. However, there has been a gradual drift northward on the models, and there is still time for some of the higher snow amounts to make their way into the Southern Tier or Finger Lakes.
The maximum snow amounts from this event, for anywhere, look to be in the 4-8 inch range, with a broader area of lighter snow amounts. Most of this snow will fall overnight Friday night, with just a few lingering snow showers expected Saturday morning.
In summary for this event: Uncertainties on the position of the snow remain, but the further south, the higher the chances for several inches of snow. At its peak, this should be a moderate snow event.
Temperatures will reach a high in the mid 30s on Friday, then drop back into the mid 20s Friday night as it snows. Saturday will also reach the mid 30s.
Some sun may come out later Saturday, and mostly clear skies are possible, at least for a time, Saturday night. This could allow temperatures to tumble, especially if there are several inches of new snow on the ground.
Many areas will probably dip into the 10s for at least a couple of hours Saturday night, and some pockets of even colder temperatures will be possible, depending on the clouds and snowpack.
Sunday will be a quiet day between systems. Sunshine will mix with, and probably eventually become overtaken by clouds. Light and variable winds will eventually turn southerly, helping highs rise into the upper 30s and low 40s.
A complex weather setup will unfold early next week with a wide range of possibilities showing on the models. The gist of the situation includes the potential for the coastal development of low pressure, which could also have its northeastward progress blocked.
This could mean a lot of different things, not to mention the possibility that such a low does not develop, does so weekly, or simply heads out to sea.
I did nudge the snow probabilities higher just a touch, but we are still looking at an under 50 percent chance for a moderate or heavy snowfall. Later Monday into Tuesday looks to have the highest chance for snow. Stay tuned and be wary of premature details and weather hype.
The second half of next week looks generally quiet. Temperatures become less certain late in the week and beyond, but still should generally be close to average in the mid and upper 30s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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