Before the Front
Temperatures will make another upwards jump on Friday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada.
Thursday, the boundary between cooler and warmer air masses was located overhead. Today (Friday), this boundary will shift far to the north, allowing the warmer air mass to overspread the region unabated.
Temperatures will quickly rise this morning and push into the low and mid 80s this afternoon. Only a few higher elevations in the western Southern Tier will stick to the 70s.
Fair weather clouds will eventually bubble up this afternoon, and by the late afternoon, will produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most areas probably will not see rain before sunset, and those that do will only see a brief period of rain.
Southwest winds will blow at speeds up to 10 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Lighter winds are expected along and north of the Thruway.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase this evening and for the first part of the overnight. These will be especially prevalent west of Cayuga Lake, with more scattered activity to the east.
Nighttime temperatures will drop to the low 50s. Rain will taper off before dawn, but skies will probably remain cloudy through Saturday morning and into the afternoon.
Blustery southeast winds will set up after sunrise, peaking during the early to mid afternoon hours. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds coming east of Seneca Lake. Top wind gusts in these eastern areas should be between 40-45 mph.
Temperatures will still be well above average, though not as hot as Friday. Expect temperatures to rise quickly during the morning and settle in around the mid 70s.
During the mid to late afternoon, a slow moving band of rain will cross the Finger Lakes. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible, along with a gust of wind just before the rain starts. The rain will fall for several hours, and could be locally heavy, especially at its onset.
This rain will be associated with a cold front, with most of the rain coming after the front has already moved through. With the frontal passage, winds will turn to the southwest and drop significantly, and temperatures will quickly dive into the 50s.
Once the main area of rain ends, rainfall amounts will generally be between one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain, but some locally higher amounts will be possible.
Cool and Unsettled
This cold front will usher in a prolonged period of cool, unsettled weather.
There should be a lull in the precipitation for most of Saturday night as temperatures fall to around 40 degrees. However, after sunrise Sunday morning, additional scattered rain showers are likely to pop up.
On and off showers will be possible throughout the day but should diminish after sunset. Temperatures on Sunday will mostly be in the low and mid 50s. Winds will start from the southwest and then turn to the northwest. Wind speeds will remain light throughout the day.
Widespread mid 30s are likely Monday morning with partly cloudy to at times mostly clear skies overnight and into the dawn hours. However, like Sunday, clouds will quickly bubble up and produce showers during the morning hours, persisting through the afternoon.
Light northwest winds will continue, helping hold temperatures mainly to the upper 40s, but with some warmer and cooler areas, as determined by the usual geographical influences.
It will be more of the same for Tuesday and Wednesday. Quiet overnights will allow temperatures to drop to the low 30s with some pockets of 20s, which could threaten early season fruit buds.
Daytime hours will feature scattered showers with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees on Tuesday and pushing into the mid 50s Wednesday.
None of these four days, Sunday through Wednesday, will be complete washouts. The showers will be on and off, but individually brief and generally light. Breaks of sun will be possible between the showers, with sunnier periods to start and possibly end each day.
Dry weather is most likely on Thursday next week before rain chances increase towards next weekend. Temperatures may make a run at 60 degrees on Thursday if it is sunny enough.
For the most part, though, temperatures look like they will remain on the cooler side right into the first week of May with plenty of chances for rain.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.