Hot and Dry
High pressure will keep the area hot and dry until the weekend, when some cooler air will return.
Temperatures today will be near or slightly above where they were yesterday, which will place most areas in the mid 80s today with some pockets of upper 80s.
Skies will be sunny, but there is some wildfire smoke overhead from fires in far eastern Canada. The occasional small fair weather cloud may also pass through from time to time.
Winds will be light and dewpoints will be low, much like the last several days. Top gusts will only be 10-15 mph, and relative humidity values will bottom out between 25-35 percent.
The nighttime hours will remain calm and quiet, with only some more wildfire smoke passing through. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s across the Southern Tier to around 60 degrees in portions of the north.
Thursday will add a couple more degrees onto the highs mostly in the upper 80s. Urban areas are likely to push 90 degrees. Afternoon dewpoints will remain low in the 40s, keeping relative humidity values under 30 percent.
Winds will remain light and variable, and skies will be sunny. Wildfire smoke should dissipate through the day, but it may still be a bit hazy looking, especially in the morning.
A small weather system will move into New England on Friday. This should lead to an increase in fair weather clouds across our area, but I’ve removed the rain icon from the forecast. A stray shower still cannot be totally ruled out, mostly east of Cayuga Lake, but over 95% of the region will likely stay dry on Friday.
A north wind will pick up a bit in the afternoon with speeds approaching 10 mph at times. Nonetheless, temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
The system moving through New England on Friday will have a better chance of clipping our area on Saturday as it moves south-southwest.
The chances for rain still look relatively low, but at least a few showers or thunderstorms are expected. These will be most likely across the southeastern half of the region, roughly from Syracuse to Penn Yan to Wellsville and eastward.
Even the area that see rain will generally see light, insignificant amounts.
Northeast winds will blow at 10-15 mph, bringing in some cooler air. It will still be warm, though, with highs around 80 degrees.
Sunday is looking dry and a bit cooler still with highs in the mid 70s. Skies should be a mix of sun and clouds with gentle north winds.
Upper 40s and low 50s are likely Sunday night, leading into what should be a mostly dry Monday. However, there is enough uncertainty in the models that I have included at least a chance for a few showers Monday afternoon.
The forecast is similarly uncertain through the early and mid parts of next week. There is a chance it could be dry every day, but there is also a chance it could be rainy at times.
Temperatures will remain lower with highs mostly in the 70s. Late in the week, the forecast becomes even less certain, with a wide range of temperatures showing on the models to go with varying possibilities for rainfall.
25-Years Ago Today…
On May 31, 1998, one of the most impressive severe weather and tornado outbreaks in New York’s history occurred.
This day produced the only High Risk outlook from the Storm Prediction Center ever in the northeastern United States. Three of New York’s 21 recorded EF-3 or F-3, since 1950, occurred on that day. One of the ten tornadoes to touch down in New York was the state’s second longest tornado track, while another recorded the state’s second widest track at nearly a mile wide.
I was 9 years old at the time and I remember the entire day vividly. I believe that this event, more than any other single event, took my inherent interest in the weather and turned it into a passion.
Of course, 1998 also brought the deadly Labor Day storm that hit the New York State Fairgrounds, as well as several other significant and notable severe weather events.
To mark these significant anniversaries, I have produced a new talk on the severe weather season of 1998. I will be giving this talk online at three different times next week on Wednesday evening, Thursday afternoon, and Saturday morning.
Seats are limited and there is a small ticket fee to cover expenses and the many hours of research and preparation that went into this talk. I am also looking for opportunities to give this talk to groups, either online or in person.