High pressure continues to keep a firm grip on the weather in the Finger Lakes, resulting in sunny, hot weather.
Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day, with nothing more than a few isolated, small clouds to break up the sunshine. There is also some light wildfire smoke in the area this morning, but that should dissipate as the day wears on.
Winds will follow the same pattern as recent days, with little to no wind this morning turning to a light north wind this afternoon.
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, resulting in most areas topping out between 85-90 degrees. The best chance for hitting 90 degrees will be in urban areas and in the I-90 Corridor.
It will once again be a dry heat with dewpoints in the 40s and relative humidity values under 30 percent. The NY DEC has set the fire danger rating at Level 3- HIGH for the entire state.
The weekly drought report from the US Drought Monitor will come out later this morning. Last week’s report did not have any drought classification in our area, but I would be surprised if that did not change after another dry week.
Skies will be clear overnight with lows ranging mostly between 55-60 degrees.
Friday will be equally as hot as today with highs of 85-90 degrees. Dewpoints will come up slightly, especially late in the day, as an influx of moisture over New England and southeastern Canada presses south towards the region.
The increase in moisture will help produce widespread puffy fair weather clouds during the afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the north and could approach 10 mph for a time during the afternoon.
There is a small chance of rain, mostly late in the day or during the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be much more common over eastern and northern New York, and a stray shower or storm could meander into our area, especially east of Seneca Lake.
Temperatures Reverse Course
The subtle boundary responsible for the increase in moisture and chances for showers will drop south early Saturday. A few showers will be possible, mainly in the morning, but most areas will unfortunately remain dry. Those that do see rain will see very light amounts.
North and northeast winds will increase behind this boundary with speeds over 10 mph for a time Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts should stay just under 30 mph.
These winds will import cooler air into the region. Before the winds pick up, though, many areas will get to around 80 degrees on Saturday.
Clear skies will return by Saturday evening, allowing overnight temperatures to drop to the upper 40s and low 50s.
Sunday will have plenty of sunshine before some late clouds mix in. Light east winds in the morning will turn to the north during the afternoon. Cool air will continue to settle in with highs mostly in the low 70s.
The specifics of the weather next week continue to be uncertain as low pressure moves off the coast of New England and stalls out. Spokes of atmospheric energy will rotate around the low, bringing chances for rain to our area.
However, it is still too far out to pinpoint when these periods of rain will be, and whether they will actually amount to anything meaningful.
At this point, it is safe to assume that there will at least be some showers, likely during the afternoon and early evening hours, a couple of times next week. There is a small chance that little to no rain will end up falling, but there is also an equal chance that some soaking rain will move through.
Either way, temperatures should remain on the cool side, with highs mostly likely spending a few days in the 60s. Nighttime temperatures will not drop as much as the daytime highs, and should mostly stick around 50 degrees.
Both temperature and precipitation only become more uncertain the later in the week it gets, and especially by next weekend and beyond. I have seen everything from highs in the low 50s to highs pushing 100 degrees on the models, though I can pretty confidently say that those extremes are highly unlikely.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.