Late Week Weather
Following this week’s pattern of every-other-day rain, today will be the dry day between events across the Finger Lakes.
The low pressure system that moved through yesterday is now to the east over New England, while tomorrow’s rain maker is still back towards Chicago. A very weak wedge of high pressure exists between the two.
Most of the region is experiencing cloudy skies this morning in the wake of yesterday’s rain. These clouds should gradually burn off through the morning. Scattered to numerous fair weather clouds will take their place, so sunshine may be limited to small breaks between the clouds.
A couple of these clouds may be able to produce some isolated, brief showers this afternoon. The vast majority of the region will stay dry, though. Those that do see rain will only see a few minutes of it before the small shower moves on.
There should also be an increase in wildfire smoke this afternoon and especially this evening. This batch of smoke is expected to almost entirely be aloft, so our surface air quality should not suffer significantly as a result. What is visible of the sunset, however, will likely have that smoky look to it.
Winds will be from the northwest today with a slight shift to the west late in the day. Wind speeds will be over 5 mph, but under 10 mph, with gusts around 20 mph.
Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday and just a couple of degrees shy of the daily averages. Mid 70s are likely in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier from Corning to Binghamton and near Dansville, and also across the I-90 corridor. The rest of the region should be in the low 70s with a few hilltops peaking at around 70 degrees.
Clouds will be on the increase this evening and winds will turn to the south with speeds around 5 mph. Nighttime temperatures will mostly stick to the mid 50s.
Scattered showers will move in after midnight and continue into Friday morning. Like yesterday, showers will increase and mix with thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of these may be slow-moving again as the low tracks directly overhead, just like yesterday.
Many areas will see over a half-inch of rainfall again on Friday, with isolated pockets of one, two inches, or even more. This could lead to some isolated flooding concerns.
Showers will continue into the evening, though downpours will dissipate. Some showers may persist through the overnight.
High temperatures on Friday will mostly fall between 65-70 degrees.
As the low passes by Friday evening, some smoke will move in on its backside overnight. Most of this will be aloft, but some may make it down to the surface. However, only light amounts of smoke are expected, and it should be nothing like last week.
Weekend Weather and Next Week
Friday’s low will not make it too far to the east before it slows down and stalls out. This may lead to a split scenario across the Finger Lakes for Saturday.
To the west of Seneca Lake, clouds in the morning will dissipate and turn to a mix of sun and fair weather clouds. To the east, clouds will remain more common, and showers will be possible at times.
Any slight shift in the position of the low could push the rain further back to the west or pull it further off to the east.
Temperatures may not end up much different than Friday, with highs mostly in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The further west, the greater the chances for sunshine and the greater the chances for breaking into the 70s.
Saturday will also have some breezy northwest winds with gusts around 25 mph. The flow will also continue to be favorable for smoke, though it remains to be seen how this will unfold. The smoke models will start to “see” Saturday this afternoon and evening, so I will have more information on what we may expect in tomorrow’s blog post.
The low should be far enough east of Sunday to at least remove most of the showers from the area. A few stray showers may still be possible, mainly east of Cayuga Lake during the midday hours.
High temperatures on Sunday should mostly be in the mid 70s with the hills a bit cooler, as usual.
Monday may still have a stray shower or two about but generally looks like a dry day. Temperatures will continue to climb with many areas around 80 degrees.
Tuesday is uncertain and could see another period of rain late in the day or during the night into Wednesday. Another chance for rain may appear late in the week.
Temperatures will settle into the mid 70s for much of next week but could inch higher toward next weekend.
As far as wildfire smoke goes, the overall flow looks unfavorable for a direct path from the Quebec fires throughout next week, so there should hopefully be little to be concerned with on that front.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.