Low Pressure Passing Through
Showers and afternoon thunderstorms are likely across the Finger Lakes today as an area of low pressure passes overhead.
All in all, today looks similar to our last rainy day on Wednesday, though it is important to point out that no two weather days are exactly the same.
Showers are already in the area this morning, particularly across the northern half of the Finger Lakes. Occasional batches of showers will continue to move through during the morning hours, though some areas will probably end up mostly dry most of the time.
As we transition into the afternoon, the low will move into the region and interact with the afternoon heating cycle. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will pop up. Some of these will be slow-moving or nearly stationary.
The thunderstorms will taper back to showers by evening, and showers will taper to a few spits of drizzle overnight.
Rainfall amounts today will be highly variable. On the low end, some areas may see less than a quarter of an inch. On the high end, localized amounts approaching or exceeding two inches are not out of the question. It will all depend on where the individual cells develop and how they move this afternoon.
For the isolated areas that see the highest rain amounts, there could be some minor flooding issues during and immediately following the downpours.
Temperatures will mostly stick to the 60s today thanks to the rainy conditions. Winds will be light, starting from the southeast and ending from the northwest as the low passes by. Nighttime temperatures will drop to the mid 50s overnight.
The low will be to our east on Saturday and should stay far enough away to keep most of the area quiet. Only a few stray showers over the far eastern Finger Lakes are expected, and even in those areas, most places are now looking dry. The greatest chance for showers will be in the morning hours.
Sunshine will become more common the further west you head tomorrow morning, but all areas should see a good deal of sunshine in the afternoon.
Temperatures on Saturday will rise into the low 70s. Northwest winds will become breezy, with speeds around or slightly above 10 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph.
There will likely be some smoke in the atmosphere, both aloft and a little near the surface. The amount of smoke should remain low, and I am not expecting any significant air quality concerns.
A Dry Stretch
The low will meander a bit further east on Sunday, which has allowed me to take the raindrop icon out of the 7-day forecast graphic.
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with dry conditions throughout the day. Winds will start the day from the west but will mostly be from the northwest. Wind speeds will be lighter than on Saturday, coming in under 10 mph with gusts near or under 20 mph.
Temperatures will continue to slowly push upward, with highs Sunday in the mid and upper 70s.
Dry conditions should persist on Monday and probably Tuesday as well. Winds on both days will be light and variable, and the overall flow looks less favorable for smoke from Quebec.
Temperatures will inch upwards, with highs around 80 degrees on both days.
There is still a small chance for some rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point, however, it looks like most areas will probably stay dry.
Temperatures on Wednesday will add a couple more degrees with most areas in the low 80s and a few reaching the mid 80s.
Sunshine is currently expected for Thursday, and possibly Friday and Saturday next week. Temperatures will continue to be in the low and mid 80s.
The dry weather is not expected to persist. Humidity will increase over next weekend and an unsettled, potentially stormy pattern will be possible for the final week of June.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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