Wednesday-Thursday Weather
A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected for the Finger Lakes, but like yesterday, rainfall today will be isolated and limited.
Our region remains sandwiched between high pressure over eastern Canada and a broad, weak low over the southeastern United States.
An easterly flow between these two systems is overhead and will serve as a weak boundary marking where the spheres of influence of these two systems meet.
Most areas are starting the day out with clear skies or fog this morning. During the second half of the morning, the typical fair-weather clouds will start to bubble up and grow. By the early and mid afternoon, a few isolated showers will pop up and drift from east to west.
The majority of the region will not see rain today, but a few of the showers could have some brief, heavier downpours.
While yesterday’s showers focused on the southern half of the region, today’s showers will have an axis that is a bit further north. Most of the showers should stay near or south of I-90, but also mainly out of the areas closest to Pennsylvania.
Temperatures today will generally be in the mid and upper 70s, with a stripe of low 80s across the I-90 corridor in the northern Finger Lakes. East winds will blow at over 5 mph, but under 10 mph, with gusts around 20 mph.
Showers will end late in the day, but clouds will increase from the south tonight as low pressure pushes northward.
As this low moves north, it will throw an area of rain showers toward our region on Thursday. However, the high will not give up that easily, and dry air should help erode away at the rain as it moves in. The big question will be how much of the rain survives into our area, and for how long.
Therefore, the further south you are, the higher your chances for rain on Thursday. The southern half of the region will see the showers enter during the late morning and midday hours, while anything that survives the trip further north will move in during the early and mid afternoon.
Temperatures will also be coolest in the south with highs ranging from the mid 60s in higher terrain to near 70 in larger towns and broad valleys. Once you get towards the northern ends of the lakes themselves, highs should reach the low 70s with mid 70s along and north of I-90.
Winds on Thursday will remain from the east, shifting slightly to the southeast in the afternoon, with speeds in that same 5-10 mph range.
Thursday night will be mostly cloudy with a few showers after midnight and lows around 60 degrees.
Wet Weekend Weather… And Beyond
By Friday, the high pressure system will vacate the region and push out over the Atlantic Ocean. A weak low pressure center will move into the Ohio River Valley, resulting in a broad area of unsettled weather up and down the eastern United States.
With the low to our southwest and the high to our east, winds will turn more southerly on Friday and precipitation will move from south to north.
Scattered showers will be possible at any time, but look to be most likely early on in the morning and then in the late afternoon and evening hours.
These look like hit-or-miss showers, so not all areas will necessarily see rain. However, there should be enough coverage so that dry areas will be scarce. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible, and localized areas could see brief downpours.
Temperatures on Friday will generally be in the upper half of the 70s. A few places may hit 80 degrees, again, mainly near I-90 in the north and in the broad, urbanized valleys from Corning to Binghamton.
Scattered showers will continue through Friday night with lows only in the mid 60s. Showers will be possible into Saturday morning before increasing further in the afternoon and evening.
Overall, the rain looks heavier and more widespread on Saturday than Friday, though far western areas such as Rochester and Dansville may have a lower chance for rain than the rest of the region. Again, some thunder may mix in as well.
Temperatures will again mainly be in the upper 70s with a few urbanized low 80s. It will be muggy with dewpoints well into the 60s, which will help keep temperatures warm overnight.
The focal point for showers and rumbles of thunder will shift east on Sunday, with areas near and south of a Syracuse-Penn Yan-Wellsville line having the best chance for afternoon rain. Overall, the rain looks less widespread and intense than either Saturday or Friday.
With a bit less rain around, temperatures will nose upward a couple of degrees. More areas will poke into the low 80s, and even the higher elevations will not be far off from 80 degrees.
On Monday, a better organized low will move east into the Great Lakes region. This should bring us a warm, humid day with a few scattered pop-up thunderstorms possible. The low looks too far to the west to bring a more robust, widespread thunderstorm threat, but it will bear watching in case the timing shifts at all.
Temperatures should mostly reach the low 80s with a few mid 80s in those same warmer areas. Higher elevations will be around 80 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase as the low spins its way through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days look quite wet at this point, but given that it is still a week out, uncertainty is high.
The weather looks as though it may calm down some for the end of next week, though it is too early to totally discount any rain chances.
Temperatures will retreat, with highs dropping into the 70s for the middle of next week, and possibly into the upper 60s by the end of the week.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
