Sometimes Wet Weekend
A broad, poorly defined area of low pressure will meander into the northeastern United States today and stick around through the weekend.
This will usher in an unsettled pattern of occasional showers and thundery downpours, though it is unlikely to rain constantly.
Most of today will end up dry, though some occasional batches of light rain showers will be possible from time to time. Most areas should only see a few spits of rain through the mid-afternoon, if even that.
After 4 or 5 PM, rain showers will increase across the area and become accompanied by some thundery downpours. These continue to look more favorable over the eastern half of the region, so roughly from Seneca-Cayuga Lake and eastward.
These showers may become widespread for a couple of hours before weakening and becoming more scattered after sunset. Additional showers, and possibly some broader areas of light rain, will be possible overnight, especially after midnight.
Showers will gradually diminish Saturday morning, only to flair up again during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. Again, these will transition to diminishing showers after sunset, though sprinkles will be possible through the night.
Sunday will follow suit, with very little precipitation expected Sunday morning, followed by isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.
There will be plenty of dry time mixing in with the showers this weekend, especially during the morning and midday hours. The mid and late afternoon periods will generally be the rainiest.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected this weekend, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially since some storms may be slow movers. Some isolated poor drainage and small stream flooding could occur.
However, overall rainfall amounts will be highly variable, and there may well be places that get through the weekend with only a quarter inch, or even less, of rainfall. On the high end, some areas could see upwards of 3 inches.
It will be humid through the weekend, with highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s Friday and Saturday, and into the low 80s on Sunday. Nighttime temperatures will stick to the low and mid 60s, which is also where dewpoints will spend most of the weekend.
By early next week, a new weather system will move in from the west, but with very similar results.
Monday will be warm and muggy with highs in the low 80s. Conditions continue to look the most favorable for thunderstorms on Monday with an unstable atmosphere. While winds are not overly favorable for severe storms, an uptick in lightning activity compared to the weekend is likely.
This may continue into Tuesday as well, with modest instability possible, despite a drop in temperatures from the low 80s Monday to the mid 70s Tuesday. At the very least, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected.
The pattern will not shift much by Wednesday, though the chances for frequent lightning will decrease. Scattered to numerous showers are currently expected, though this remains far enough in advance for some inherent uncertainty.
This may also be the case on Thursday as the system begins to slowly pull away. Rain and thunder will be possible, but everything could also pack up and head east. It is too early to declare the middle of next week a total washout.
Temperatures will continue to slide back, with highs in the low 70s on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows should remain at or above 60 degrees until Wednesday night, when mid 50s are more likely.
Uncertainty is high as we head into July next weekend, though there will be more chances for rain. Temperatures should stay mild, but not hot, with highs generally sticking between 75-85 degrees.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.