Air Quality Alert
Low pressure is passing by to our east this morning, bringing an end to our rainy weather but opening the region up to a batch of wildfire smoke from Canada.
There are only a few blips on the radar this morning as the last lingering showers move through the area. An occasional spit of rain will continue to be possible this morning and possibly even into the midday hours.
However, with each passing hour, the chances for rain will continue to drop. Even those areas that do see rain will see only very light, probably unmeasurable amounts.
Northwest winds on the backside of the high will blow at up to 10 mph today. These winds will bring in cooler, less humid air, but also some wildfire smoke.
Already this morning, the Air Quality Index (AQI) is in the yellow (moderate) and orange (unhealthy for sensitive groups) category for most of the Finger Lakes. The Rochester area is in the red (unhealthy) category, while widespread red and purple (very unhealthy) conditions are spread throughout the Great Lakes region.
Visible smoke is being reported to me as well this morning, which is indicative of poor modeling of this smoke event. The models indicated the smoke would arrive later and in small concentrations. As I stressed in my post last evening, it is always important to monitor the current, actual conditions and not get locked into a forecast, especially one as low-confidence as smoke and AQI.
Again, I highly recommend the map at https://fire.airnow.gov/ for the most accurate, current information on the air quality.
It seems likely that the worst air quality will remain to our west, and that tomorrow’s air quality will be similar to today’s. I do not expect a situation like June 7th, when the AQI was in the maroon (hazardous) range with values over 400, though since similar conditions do exist across the Upper Great Lakes, it bears watching closely.
Outside of the smoke, clouds should gradually give way to some sunshine this afternoon, especially late in the day. Temperatures will be around 70 degrees and dewpoints comfortably in the 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear (not counting smoke) overnight with lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday will have a mix of sun and clouds (and smoke) with highs bouncing back to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will remain low in the 50s, and winds will be light from the west and northwest. Thursday night should again drop into the mid 50s.
Back to Storms This Weekend
Winds will turn southerly on Friday, pushing temperatures into the mid 80s and causing dewpoints to rise back into the 60s.
The biggest question for Friday will be how large of a chance there will be for some late day showers and thunderstorms.
The forecast has trended towards this possibility, especially for the southeastern half of the region, which is roughly from Syracuse to Penn Yan to Wellsville east and south. This will continue to be monitored and confidence in how many showers and storms should be expected should increase by tomorrow morning’s post.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase for Saturday, though again, exactly how widespread they become is uncertain. There are several ingredients in place on Saturday that could produce a couple of stronger storms as well.
Sunday will continue to see showers and storms, though the overall conditions for thunderstorms, especially stronger ones, will decline. A few showers and storms may linger into Monday as well, but this is even less certain.
Temperatures will take a step back due to the increase in precipitation, with highs in the upper 70s Saturday and around 80 on Sunday. Both days will be humid, with dewpoints well into the 60s. Overnight lows will only make it to the mid 60s.
Warm, humid conditions will continue next week as well, with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Precipitation is uncertain next week and may be thunderstorm driven given the heat and humidity in place.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Fritzie Blizzard
TYPO & I’m guilty at times, too. … Your Fri. forecast possibility mentions Penn Yan & Wellsville as being to the east & south of Syracuse in the southeastern half of region. It’s west, southwest.
At 11:20 a.m. here in Union Springs I have a 63*, down from 64* at 11:10 & down from 70* after midnight & a shower before 9 a.m. that dropped another 2 tenths inch of rain. Rather brisk, very damp, chilly breeze from the north, slightly NW.
I’m 1/2 mi. from Cayuga Lake but can only see a faint bit of it. West shore? No way.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Fritzie! What I am trying to say there is that the southeastern Finger Lakes is the region made when bisecting the entire area with a line that runs roughly from Syracuse → Penn Yan → Wellsville. Areas south and east of this imaginary line are what I consider the “southeastern” Finger Lakes, and thus are the areas I am focusing on for rain late Friday.
Susan M Liddy
How long will the smoke last throughout the region?
We will be in the are area the end of next week.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
It is not really possible to tell that far in advance. This particular smoke plume should depart late Thursday or Friday as winds turn southerly… but as long as the fires in Canada are burning, there will be the possibility of smoke when the wind is from the north or northwest.