Unsettled Weekend
The frontal boundary that brought thunderstorms to the region yesterday is stalled out just to our southeast this morning.
Skies are a mix of sun, clouds, and areas of fog to start off Friday. Temperatures are generally in the low 60s.
For the most part, today should be a quiet day. The fog will burn off, leaving a pleasant summertime mix of sun and fair-weather clouds.
The front may stick just close enough for a stray shower or storm this afternoon across Chemung, Tioga, Tompkins, and Cortland counties. Even in these areas, though, most places should stay dry.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 80s between Elmira and Binghamton, to near 80 degrees in higher elevations and near the shore of Lake Ontario. Most places will end up in the low 80s. Dewpoints will not be too high, sticking to the upper 50s and low 60s.
Skies will be clear this evening with temperatures settling in the mid 60s. The Aurora is forecast to be stronger tonight than last night, but probably still not strong enough to be visible in our area. Still, with clear skies and a dark north horizon, it may be worth taking a look.
Saturday will turn back to hotter, more humid weather. Sun and clouds will dominate the day as temperatures push into the mid and upper 80s. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, with a late jump to the upper 60s.
A couple of afternoon showers or storms will be possible. These should remain isolated enough that many areas will stay dry through sunset.
Later in the evening, and especially overnight and into early Sunday morning, widespread rain and thunder are possible. Localized rain amounts over an inch are a reasonable expectation. Thundery downpours could lead to some isolated flooding issues.
There is still uncertainty in the placement and intensity of the heaviest rainfall, and I will update if the flood threat looks greater.
Also uncertain is how long the rain will last Sunday morning. The afternoon should have less rain than the morning, and especially for western areas, sunshine should increase.
Temperatures will stick to the upper 60s for lows Sunday morning, followed by afternoon highs in the low 80s. It will remain very humid with dewpoints around 70 degrees.
The Weather Next Week
Our weather pattern will continue to flip-flop back and forth between dry days and days with showers and storms.
Monday will be a dry day with warm temperatures. It should not be quite as hot as Saturday, but highs in the mid 80s are likely. Dewpoints should back off some and could slip into the 50s for a time.
A quick-moving system will move through on Tuesday. Showers and storms will be scattered, and most of the day will probably end up dry.
It is too early to tell what sort of storm organization and strength there may be, but the early indications are for a fair amount of wind energy aloft, so it will be something to watch closely over the weekend.
Wednesday should go back to dry weather. Temperatures will be near or slightly above 80 degrees. Wednesday night will have our best upcoming chance for overnight lows to get below 60 degrees.
Showers and storms will return on Thursday. Again, it is too early to tell much, but there will be some winds aloft that could support stronger storms. Like Tuesday, take a wait-and-see approach. There is much more that goes into making strong thunderstorms than just strong winds aloft.
Temperatures through the end of the week will remain close to average around 80 degrees. There may be additional rain chances towards next weekend.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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