High pressure is starting the day directly over the Finger Lakes but will gradually drift off to the east.
For the daytime hours, this should keep the majority of the region quiet and dry.
Skies are starting off with full sunshine, outside of a few sporadic pockets of some fog. Sunny skies will continue throughout the day, mixing with the typical fair-weather clouds from the mid to late morning through the afternoon.
As the high pressure heads east, winds will turn to the south behind it. During the day, wind speeds will be near or under 5 mph, but the wind will pick up slightly this evening and turn more southeasterly.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 80s for much of the region. Dewpoints will stick to the 50s most of the day before rising into the 60s this evening.
The first chance for rain and thunderstorms will move into the western Finger Lakes around sunset this evening. Showers and storms will be scattered and should weaken and dissipate as they cross our area.
A second area of rain and thunderstorms will be just a couple hours behind. This second area will be more robust and long-lasting and should move through between midnight and the predawn hours.
There will be a chance for some strong thunderstorm winds with this second area, particularly across the Southern Tier. Some sporadic wind damage will be possible, as will some locally heavy downpours.
The widespread rain should be east of our region by dawn Friday. Temperatures will start the day in the mid 60s and will rise to the mid and upper 70s during the afternoon.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be around throughout the day. The peak of the activity should come in the mid to late afternoon hours before tapering to lingering showers Friday night.
This activity will be characterized by small, localized, and relatively short-lived cells. A few places may sneak through the day with only a few minutes of rain.
Severe weather and flooding are generally not expected on Friday.
Pleasant Weekend, Some Heat Next Week
Another area of high pressure will build in for the weekend.
Early Saturday morning, there may still be some clouds and a stray shower about. These should give way to some sun during the early and mid morning. Fair weather clouds will mix with sunshine for the rest of the day, with only a very small chance for a couple of drips of rain in isolated areas.
Northwest winds will set up between the incoming high and departing low, increasing to near 10 mph with gusts near 25 mph. Some cooler, dry air will move in on these winds.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s but should be a degree or two cooler than Friday. Dewpoints will come down as well, settling in the mid 50.
Clear skies and calming winds Saturday night will send temperatures back into the 50s. Sunday will be sunny with fair weather clouds and a bit warmer, with highs making it to the low 80s.
Monday will return to the mid 80s as the next weather system rolls into the area. Showers and storms will be possible, especially late in the day. More activity will be possible Monday night, tapering to a few showers early Tuesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday behind the system will still be in the low 80s, with a return to mid 80s on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies.
A day or two of hot weather is looking more and more likely Thursday and possibly Friday with highs near or above 90 degrees. Temperatures will then reverse course over next weekend as a weather system moves through, with highs somewhere around 80 degrees as July turns to August.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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