Low Pressure Departing
In the wake of last night’s line of thunderstorms, quieter weather will gradually build into the region as low pressure passes through and departs.
The center of the low is directly north of the Finger Lakes this morning over the 1000 Islands. A cold front extends southwest from the low, back toward Lake Erie.
The front will creep eastward this morning and will be overhead during the midday hours. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will develop and persist through the afternoon.
Individual showers and storm cells will be small and quick moving, so it will likely only rain for 10 to 20 minutes at a time. The hit-or-miss nature of the showers means multiple showers may impact a single location, while nearby areas see very little rainfall throughout the day.
The showers will become less numerous as the afternoon wears on, and after sunset, there should only be a few isolated spits of rain.
Temperatures will be held to the mid and upper 70s this afternoon as the front turns winds to the west, then northwest. Limited sunshine will also help keep temperatures down. Nighttime temperatures will fall to around or below 60 degrees.
Saturday will have quite a bit more sunshine than today, but still, a couple of stray afternoon showers cannot be totally ruled out. These will be most likely over the southern half of the region during the later afternoon and very early evening hours. Most areas will stay dry.
Highs will again be in the mid and upper 70s thanks to a steady northwest wind. Wind gusts will reach 20-25 mph at times.
Low humidity, calming winds, and clear skies Saturday night will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s. Some of the typically cooler locations across the Southern Tier and into Central New York could reach the low 50s or even slip just below 50 degrees.
Sunday will be a quiet day with a mix of sun and clouds, light winds, and highs close to average at around 80 degrees.
Storms and Heat Next Week
The weather will become active again next week, first with unsettled weather and then with a couple of hot days.
Winds will turn southerly Sunday night, allowing humidity to push back into the area for Monday. Temperatures will be on the rise as well, with highs in the mid 80s likely.
During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will pop up. Winds in the atmosphere will be light, so severe weather is unlikely, but localized pockets of heavy rain from slow-moving storms will be possible.
Tuesday will also have a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but the front responsible for the activity will likely sag a bit to the southeast. Confidence is lower, therefore, and much of the activity may end up outside of the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures will dip on Tuesday, with highs more likely to be in the low 80s. It will be a very temporary drop.
Wednesday looks sunny, though depending on where the front is, a stray shower cannot be ruled out this far in advance. Temperatures will start their climb, returning to the mid 80s.
Confidence in hot weather is highest for Thursday when highs should push to near 90 degrees. Skies will be sunny with no rain expected.
Friday may be just as hot, but an incoming front could trigger afternoon showers and storms and prevent the temperature from reaching its full potential. Obviously, this is still a week away, so there is plenty of time to work out details like that. Either way, it will likely be very warm.
Some models hold on to hot temperatures even into Saturday, while others start to knock the heat back significantly. Rain and thunderstorms will become more likely as a front moves through.
Temperatures should then settle near or even slightly below average by Sunday and into the following week, with highs in the 70s or perhaps low 80s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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