Hot, then Stormy
High pressure centered over Alabama continues to extend up the Appalachians and into our area while low pressure slowly works eastward across the Midwest.
Hot and humid air between these systems will remain locked in place for today while the high pressure ensures one more day of sunshine and dry weather.
Overall, today will be a couple of degrees hotter than yesterday. More areas should hit or exceed 90 degrees, and parts of the Genesee Valley could push into the 93-95 degree range. With dewpoint around 70 degrees, the heat index will range through the 90s.
Fair weather clouds will develop during the afternoon, but no rain is expected during the daytime hours. A few stray showers may develop this evening west of Canandaigua Lake, but even there, most areas will probably not see much rainfall.
Winds will remain light if not completely calm, both during the daytime and evening hours.
It will be a very warm, muggy night with overnight lows not getting below 70 degrees across the northern half of the Finger Lakes and mostly sticking to the upper 60s with a few cooler pockets elsewhere.
The small chance for a stray shower will persist overnight, spreading east across the rest of the Finger Lakes. Any showers should dissipate around or shortly after sunrise on Thursday.
Thursday morning will be quiet, with temperatures quickly pushing into the 80s. Temperatures should peak in the mid and upper 80s during the first part of the afternoon. Showers and storms will then begin to develop during the mid-afternoon, forming into large clusters.
There may be some pockets that stay dry, but most of the region should see rain Thursday afternoon or early in the evening. A few locally strong wind gusts will be possible, along with some heavy downpours and frequent lightning.
Wet Through the Weekend
Most of the rain should depart the region during Thursday evening, leaving a relatively quiet overnight. Temperatures will drop to the mid 60s with areas of fog, especially in locations that saw heavy rain.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again Friday by the early afternoon. While the focal point for showers and storms will be just to our east, much of the region should still see scattered precipitation. Areas from Elmira to Ithaca to Syracuse and eastward will have a higher chance for steadier, heavier rain than the rest of the region.
Again, a locally strong wind gust, areas of frequent lightning, and some heavy downpours will be possible, especially in those same southeastern areas.
Temperatures will top out around 80 degrees on Friday, though it will still be very humid with dewpoints between 65-70 degrees.
Much of the activity will die out with the sunset again Friday evening, but a few stray showers and storms will continue to be possible through the night and into Saturday morning.
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to be possible throughout the day Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls and drifts back westward overhead.
It will probably not be raining all of Saturday, and a few areas, especially in the west, may not see much rain. But it may be tough to plan around the showers if you have outdoor plans, especially in the afternoon.
Rain showers may be even more widespread on Sunday, starting scattered in the morning and then increasing for the afternoon. Thunder will become even less common, though a few rumbles may still be possible.
Temperatures will be much cooler by the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s on Saturday and low 70s on Sunday.
A few lingering showers will be possible Monday morning before the frontal boundary finally moves on. Tuesday will be the reverse, with a dry morning and afternoon showers as the next system moves in. Highs will top out in the low 70s both days.
Rain will continue into Wednesday before a dry day or two to end next week. Temperatures will retreat a bit further, with highs in the upper 60s Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Friday.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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