Cold Early Week Weather
An area of high pressure over Canada will keep our weather cool to start the week, setting up a period of wintry mix Tuesday afternoon.
Skies are clear to start the week, however, with the high pressure firmly in control of the regional weather pattern. The clear skies and light winds overnight have sent temperatures mostly into the lower half of the 20s to start off the day.
A light north wind will blow today with speeds near or even under 5 mph. It will be enough to entrench the cool air in place, despite full sunshine for most of the day.
High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the mid and upper 30s. A few valley locations from Dansville to Elmira to Binghamton will flirt with 40 degrees.
Thin clouds will start to move in from the southwest later this afternoon and will continue to increase and thicken through the night. Winds will also turn from the north to the southeast tonight, increasing to near 10 mph by Tuesday morning.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s. No nighttime precipitation is expected, and Tuesday morning will likewise be cloudy by dry.
Precipitation will move in Tuesday afternoon, spreading from southwest to northeast during the first half of the afternoon. Temperatures ahead of this precipitation should reach the mid and upper 30s, but may lose a couple of degrees as the precipitation first moves in.
This will lead to a wintry mix for the afternoon hours. Sleet and snow will probably be the primary precipitation types at first, though a few pockets of freezing rain cannot be totally ruled out in higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York.
Most valley and mid-altitude locations should see little if any snow and sleet accumulation. Above around 1100-1300 feet, accumulations will be more of a concern, but should still remain minor. Travel conditions may become a bit slick since the precipitation will be coming down heavily.
As usual with mixed precipitation type events, the complex terrain of the Finger Lakes will yield different results over very small distances. Minute differences in the temperature profiles through the lower levels of the atmosphere will determine which microscale areas see what.
Overall, the impact from this event should be low, but localized areas may see more of a moderate impact for a brief period of time.
Plain rain will take over as the dominant and eventually only precipitation type during the late afternoon and evening hours. It is not unreasonable to think that some warmer areas, especially near and north of I-90, may even start out as rain and remain as such through the duration of this event.
Winds will also become strong during Tuesday afternoon, still coming from the southeast. Sustained wind speeds will be near 20 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph.
The strongest gusts will be over the higher elevations south of Syracuse and in the Bristol Hills. Lighter wind speeds with gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible north of the Thruway. The strongest winds will be most likely from the mid afternoon to the mid evening hours.
Warm air will continue to push in Tuesday night, raising temperatures to the low 40s by Wednesday morning. Wednesday will then add a few more degrees with highs in the mid and upper 40s.
A few scattered showers will be around on Wednesday, but so too will some sunshine. Winds will be lighter, with top gusts of 20-25 mph, coming from the northwest. Travel around the region should be easy going.
Thanksgiving, on Thursday, will likewise be a fine travel day. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with no precipitation expected. Morning temperatures will start in the low 30s with afternoon highs in the mid 40s.
Black Friday will be a touch cooler, with morning lows starting in the upper 20s and afternoon highs staying around 40 degrees. Skies may be a bit more cloudy than Thursday, but there should still be some breaks of sunshine.
Quiet weather will continue into the weekend. Clouds will increase and a few stray flurries or showers cannot be ruled out, especially this far in advance. Saturday seems to have a higher chance for a few spits of precipitation.
High temperatures will remain around 40 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.
As we head into the final days of November next week, there do not look to be many changes to the forecast. At this distance, there is no identifiable day that seems more likely to have precipitation than another. Temperatures should continue to run close to average.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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