Active Weather Continues
A weak weather system will pass through the area today with low-impact weather.
Snow will move from west to east across the area later this morning and into the afternoon. The snow will fall steadily through the afternoon before transitioning to scattered lake effect snow showers tonight.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s as the snow falls, so little in the way of accumulation is expected. Higher elevations will see the best chance for an inch or so. Some of the typically warmer northern and lakeshore areas may see some rain mixing in at times.
Roadways should remain just wet. The primary travel issue from the snow will be reduced visibility, but only minor impacts are expected.
Winds will be on the light side today, coming from the southwest with speeds up to 10 mph and gusts only around 20 mph.
The wind will remain light overnight and even through much of Friday. Skies will be cloudy Friday, but precipitation is not expected until near or after sunset. That is when the winds will pick up, too.
Friday will start with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30, and afternoon temperatures will eventually rise to the mid and upper 30s.
After sunset, precipitation and wind will move in from the southwest. Most of the precipitation will at least start as snow. Mixed precipitation and rain will begin to take over as the evening goes on, but a few higher elevations may hold on to the snow throughout the evening.
Snow accumulations will be limited to higher elevations, where 1-3 inches may fall.
Southeast winds will continue to increase and, for a few hours, will become strong. Compared to Tuesday’s winds, this wind event will be shorter in duration and lower in maximum wind speed.
The strong winds will only last a few hours, with a quick ramping up and a quick decrease. Areas east of Cayuga Lake may see the longest duration of high winds as the cold front that will end the wind slows down overnight. Still, the last of the strong winds should depart even these areas shortly after midnight.
Wind gusts are expected to reach the 45-55 mph range. A few isolated gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Tree damage and power outages will likely result but should be more sporadic than Tuesday’s event.
Cold, Wind, Lake Snows
Temperatures will peak near 40 degrees Friday night but will fall throughout Saturday. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s, but afternoon temperatures will fall towards the low 30s. Saturday Night, temperatures will fall to near 20 degrees.
Saturday morning may actually start out with a little sun as the dry slot of this weather system moves through the area. The afternoon will be cloudier with some lake effect snow showers, especially in the northwestern Finger Lakes via Lake Erie.
Southwest winds will pick up during the day, reaching gusts of 35-45 mph. The strongest winds will be during the afternoon hours.
Lake effect snow will become well organized Saturday night into Sunday. With southwest winds persisting, the Lake Ontario band will be far removed from our area.
The Lake Erie band will be intense over southern Erie County, with lighter snows extending into the northwestern Finger Lakes. A few inches may fall across portions of Wayne, Monroe, and Livingston counties with heavier snow amounts into and west of the Genesee Valley.
Elsewhere, an occasional snow shower cannot be ruled out, but the further from the band you go, the less the chance for snow and the greater the chance for some peaks of sun.
It will be blustery again on Sunday, with wind gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be near the lake effect bands. Temperatures will struggle into the mid 20s for a high. Wind chills throughout the day will be in the teens and even single-digits.
Monday looks to be a quiet day with lake effect snow diminishing and moving further out of the area. Winds will be light and there should be a fair amount of sun mixing in with clouds. It will be chilly, with morning lows in the mid 10s and afternoon highs in the low and mid 20s.
I continue to keep an eye on Tuesday’s weather, but at this time, am not too concerned, with most models keeping snow from a coastal low well to our south and east. Still, it is a long way off, so it bears watching.
I am also casually watching late next week with the models hinting at active weather over the northeastern US.
Cold weather will stick around through the week and next weekend with daily highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s. The cold is then expected to ease up towards the middle of the following week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
