High Wind Warnings, Wind Advisories
There will be multiple chances for high winds over portions of the Finger Lakes through the weekend as a large storm system passes through the region.
This low is spreading snow and blizzard conditions through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today and tonight, while spawning severe weather across the Deep South. Here in the Finger Lakes, we are not expected to get the brunt of this storm, but there are still multiple factors to discuss.
First, the daytime hours today will be relatively quiet. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning and the afternoon will be overcast. Winds will be light from the southeast, but slowly increasing during the afternoon. Temperatures should rise to the mid 30s with a few pockets of upper 30s.
The weather intensifies this evening as precipitation moves in from the southwest. Much of this will be snow, but it will gradually begin to mix with and turn over to rain. This changeover may not start until between 10 PM and 1 AM, starting in lower elevations and along the lake shores. A few hilltops may not change over at all before the precipitation ends.
Despite the snow, which may come down moderately to hard at times, temperatures should hold in the mid 30s for most areas, almost eliminating accumulations. Higher elevations may see a slushy inch or two, though some of the far western Southern Tier may see as much as three or four inches.
Southeast winds will increase substantially this evening as well, particularly for roughly the southeastern half of the region, very roughly defined in this case as areas south of a Dansville to Syracuse line. Higher elevations will be most at risk for high winds.
Wind gusts tonight are expected to peak at 45-55 mph. Most areas will probably not see gusts quite make it to 50 mph, and some areas may not see gusts over 40 mph. This is most likely in the north, along and north of I-90.
Temperatures will rise back to near 40 degrees overnight and very early Saturday morning. Precipitation will be scarce by dawn, and there may even be some morning sunshine between clouds.
The wind scenario will flip for Saturday, with the northwestern areas most at prone for high winds. These will come in from the southwest, building through the morning and peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Wind speed will again peak with gusts in the 45-55 mph range, though the stretch from Batavia to Rochester, which is especially susceptible to southwest winds, could see higher gusts. It will still be blustery across the rest of the region as well, with gusts of 30-40 mph commonplace.
As of 7 AM, all counties served by the National Weather Service in Buffalo were under a High Wind Warning through Saturday evening. These FLX Weather counties are: Allegany, Cayuga (northern), Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne, and Wyoming.
A lesser Wind Advisory has been issued by the NWS in Binghamton for tonight in the following counties: Cayuga (southern), Cortland, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tompkins, and Yates.
Chemung and Tioga counties, as of 7 AM, did not have any wind alerts in effect.
The Rest of the Weekend Weather and a Look to Next Week
Most of Saturday will be dry, but an occasional snow shower will be possible, especially during the afternoon. More organized snow off Lake Erie may impact the Genesee Valley, Rochester Metro, and Wayne County late in the afternoon and evening. Accumulations will be limited to a couple of inches with the snow band not sticking around any one location very long.
The southwest winds will bring colder air into the area. Temperatures will fall throughout Saturday, reaching the low and mid 30s by the afternoon. Falling temperatures will persist through the night, and by Sunday morning, most areas will be in the low to mid 20s.
Sunday will have clouds, a few breaks of sun, and some occasional passing snow showers. The primary lake effect snow bands will stay out of the area, primarily staying just south of Buffalo and Watertown. Accumulating snow will make it into Wyoming and Genesee counties.
Temperatures will not rise much on Sunday with a high in the mid 20s. Blustery southwest winds will continue, with gusts of 30-40 mph throughout the region. Again, from Batavia to Rochester, stronger gusts are expected, but not to the level of Saturday.
Next week is shaping up chilly but quiet as a whole with only some passing snow showers expected.
Monday will be a mix of sun and clouds with morning lows in the low to mid 10s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 20s. Wind gusts will remain under 30 mph. The wind will have slightly more southerly component to it, lifting the lake effect snow bands to the north.
Areas from Batavia to Rochester may see a little snow as the band moves northward, but should not see much accumulation.
The chances for a coastal storm developing on Tuesday are fading with two pieces of energy, one across the southern United States and another dropping through the Great Lakes, remaining separate instead of combining forces.
There is still a slight chance this trend reverses, but even then, most models had been favoring a storm far to our east.
I have kept a few snow showers in the forecast for Tuesday as the Great Lakes energy passes through. Accumulations will be minimal at most. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday as this system passes, with lows in the mid 10s and highs in the mid 20s.
Wednesday will be similar to Monday with sun and clouds and low 10s and 20s for lows and highs, respectively. Thursday will then be similar to Tuesday, with a few snow showers and temperatures just a touch warmer.
Wind gusts will remain under 30 mph through Thursday with primarily southwest and west winds in place.
Another weather system will pass through on Friday with some snow showers and stronger winds. These winds do not look damaging, though, nor does the snow look heavy.
Temperatures may get a more of a boost towards 30 degrees on Friday, only to return to the 20s for the weekend. A substantial warming trend will then take over the following week, with highs possibly back towards 40 degrees by the middle and end of the week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
CDR John Gregoire, USN (ret).
You should get listed on Charity Navigator as it should boost donations that use that as a filter.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thanks for the suggestion, John. However, I am not organized as a 501c3, and was advised by my lawyer against doing so, therefore I wouldn’t be eligible for that.