Wintry weather into the weekend

Thursday-Friday Snow

The weather pattern will remain cold and turn more unsettled for a few days before shifting to a warmer pattern.

Today, a weak atmospheric impulse will pass through the region. This should spread some light snow showers into the area, especially later this morning and early this afternoon. Most areas should see under an inch of accumulation, and some areas may see nothing more than a few lazy flakes in the sky.

Winds will be out of the southwest at up to 10 mph this morning. Wind speeds will then drop this afternoon and become nearly calm this evening. What wind there is will shift to the west, then north, then northeast overnight.

Afternoon highs will reach the mid 20s today, which is about five degrees cooler than average. Temperatures will only drop a handful of degrees tonight, with most areas starting Friday somewhere close to 20 degrees.

A new area of snow will move in during the predawn hours as low pressure tracks across the Appalachians and out to see via the Mid-Atlantic. The Finger Lakes will be on the northern edge of the precipitation associated with this low.

Steady snow, possibly enhanced by lake effect processes off Lake Ontario, will fall throughout much of the day. The highest snowfall rates will likely come during the morning hours with a gradual tapering off during the afternoon.

Being on the edge of the system, the possible lake effect influences, and determining the fluffiness of the snow, are all contributing to making this a tricky snowfall forecast. Most areas will probably see just 2-4 inches, but some areas could see a bit more on a localized basis.

Travel will be a bit sloppy Friday, particularly in the morning. Winds will remain light in the morning but increase from the north as high as 10 mph during the afternoon. This could lead to blowing snow, which may keep some roads sloppy. The westbound lanes of east-west roads will be most prone to snow drifts.

Temperatures on Friday will not move much with a high in the low to mid 20s. Colder air will work in Friday night with overnight lows reaching the upper 0s and low 10s. Localized colder pockets are likely.

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Cold Intensifies, then Quickly Retreats

Cold, blustery northwest winds will blow throughout the day on Saturday. These winds will have 3 main impacts.

First, they will reinforce the cold air. Many places will struggle to even reach 15 degrees Saturday afternoon. With wind speeds near 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph, subzero wind chills are likely most of the day.

Second, the cold winds will produce a spray of flurries and squalls south and southeast of Lake Ontario.

The heaviest lake effect snow will be found across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, where 4-8 inches will be possible. Portions of Onondaga, southern Cayuga, and northern Cortland counties will also see notable accumulations, on the order of 2-5 inches.

The third effect of the wind will be to blow the light, fluffy lake effect snow all over. Significant drifting is likely in the areas that see several inches of snow, and even those that do not see much new snow will still have snow from Friday to blow around.

With a northwest wind, particularly both westbound and southbound lanes will have to contend with snowdrifts. Visibility will be reduced at times for all drivers. The cold temperatures will also minimize the effectiveness of rock salt, so road treatment will be difficult.

Allow for extra time to reach your destination if on the roads Saturday.

Lake snows will weaken Saturday night and dissipate Sunday morning. A few flurries may linger as late as midday Sunday. The day should end with increasing sunshine as winds quickly swing around to the southwest.

Temperatures on Sunday will start near but mostly above 10 degrees with highs in the mid 20s.

Southwest winds will begin to increase temperatures Sunday night after an initial dive in the temperature.

Monday morning will still be cool, with near-average lows in the mid 10s. The afternoon will not be far off from average either, with low and mid 30s for highs.

Monday will be mostly cloudy, but some occasional glimpses of sunshine will be possible.

Active, warmer weather is expected for much of next week. Some snow may fall Tuesday as a push of warmer air moves into the region. This should eventually end as some rain, with rain showers persisting into Wednesday.

Another system will be possible Friday and Saturday next week. While temperatures will remain slightly above average, it is too soon to say whether this will be all rain or a mixture of precipitation types.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.