Active Weather Wednesday
A strong low pressure system is stalled out over Lake Michigan this morning while a second low is beginning to take shape over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Areas of widespread rain between these lows have been intermittently moving through the Finger Lakes since yesterday and will continue to do so today.
Early this morning, the precipitation has turned showery between batches, but steady moderate to heavy rain is moving north through Pennsylvania and will overspread our area by mid-morning.
Downpours embedded within the larger area of rain are likely and may begin to result in some small stream and poor drainage flooding. Larger streams and rivers will also rise, and some may reach minor flood stage.
The rain will probably begin to taper off somewhat in the second half of the afternoon, but is unlikely to end completely as the second low rapidly strengthens along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
It will also be windy this morning and early afternoon, with southeast winds gusting between 35-45 mph for many areas. A few isolated gusts to 50 mph are not out of the question, especially as a cold front moves through this afternoon. Wind speeds will drop sharply behind this front with light winds this evening and overnight.
Temperatures will stick to the low and mid 40s for most of the day but will begin to drop late. By sunset, many areas will be in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Sleet and snow may begin to mix in with the rain as temperatures aloft cool faster.
Rain, snow, and some areas of sleet will continue through the evening and overnight, though most of the precipitation should lift north of the region between midnight and dawn Thursday.
There is poor agreement among the models about the precipitation type, but even the more aggressive wintry solutions have only minor snow accumulations across the Finger Lakes, mainly in the higher elevations.
Temperatures tonight are expected to remain above freezing for all but a few cold pockets across the Southern Tier and Central New York. Road conditions, therefore, should remain mostly just wet throughout the night and into early Thursday.
Even though the roads may remain mostly clear this evening and overnight, the precipitation may still come down hard at times, reducing visibility and leading to brief slick spots here and there. Allow for some extra travel time, just in case.
Unsettled Into the Weekend
The coastal low will move to a position along the coast of New England on Thursday and then stall out. This will keep our weather unsettled until high pressure kicks this system out to sea on Sunday.
Throughout this time period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, precipitation types will be variable and will likely go back and forth between rain and snow.
Given that it is April, it will be difficult for snow to fall during the daytime hours. Even if it does, it will not be able to accumulate with daily high temperatures sticking near or above 40 degrees. Much of the time, the precipitation will remain rain.
At night, there will be a better chance for snow. Again, though, temperatures will mainly be above freezing, so accumulations will be highly limited.
The precipitation during this time period will mainly be light and showery, though dry time may be highly limited. Areas of fog and drizzle may also stick around, especially at night and over higher elevations.
As high pressure moves in on Sunday, skies will clear and temperatures will rise. Look for highs around 50 degrees on Sunday.
Unfortunately, the forecast for the eclipse on Monday is trending in the wrong direction. A small impulse of atmospheric energy may be passing through, leading to an increase in clouds and perhaps even a few stray showers.
It does not look like a completely cloudy day, and we are still quite a way out, so there is time for this trend to reverse as the strength and timing of this small system becomes more clear.
Behind this energy, another fully sunny day is expected on Tuesday with highs breaking into the 60s. Warm weather will persist throughout next week, with the next significant weather maker looking like it will roll into the area late in the week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
