Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, possible in the FLX today

Rare Severe Weather Setup

A unique severe weather setup is unfolding across the Finger Lakes today, bringing one of the higher chances for tornadoes than the region has seen over the last couple of decades.

It is important to note right from the start, though, that just because the potential exists does not necessarily mean it will be realized.

One final note before we get into today’s forecast, especially for those who may be reading my work for the first time:

I am an independent meteorologist and business owner here in the Finger Lakes. My forecasts are my own, not a computer’s. I do not hype the weather but try to educate and explain the different scenarios that are possible. I answer every question that people send me and aim to help individuals with their specific needs.

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Let’s dive into the setup, uncertainties, and what it all means for you.

Severe Weather Set Up

An area of low pressure associated with the remains of ex-Hurricane Beryl is lifting northeast toward our region, pushing a warm front through the area this morning.

So far, rain and thunderstorms associated with the front are staying west of the area and skies will clear from south to north during the morning hours.

A tropical air mass will settle in with oppressive humidity and copious amounts of atmospheric moisture. At points this afternoon, the moisture in the atmosphere may be in a 99^th percentile, meaning this is a rarely seen, almost record level of moisture.

Temperatures will easily reach the mid and upper 80s this afternoon, combining with the humidity to produce more than enough fuel for thunderstorm development.

Strong wind fields in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere will enhance the severe risk by organizing storms and producing spin, which could result in tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center, with their overnight update, has placed much of the Finger Lakes in a 10% tornado zone. This means that there is a 1-in-10 chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the risk zone.

I am aware of only 2 other instances of a 10% or higher probability for tornadoes in our area since 2003.

The overlap of strong wind fields, large amounts of fuel, a strong nearby low, the close proximity of the warm front, and the near record amounts of moisture make this a special set up not quite like anything we have seen in some time.

Uncertainties

However, there are still several sources of uncertainty that could mitigate some of this potent set up.

First, the most recent hourly updating models are carrying the warm front further north. This has the dual effect of reducing the forcing mechanisms needed to develop initial storms and reducing slightly the wind fields especially primed for tornado development.

The more the wind fields and large amounts of fuel are decoupled, the lower the tornado risk will be.

A related uncertainty will be the timing of the storms and their initial development. Late in the afternoon, it is highly likely that a line of strong to severe storms will move through the region.

However, the greater tornado threat will come in any individual “supercell” thunderstorms that can develop ahead of this line. Models are mixed on this happening, with some bringing several rounds of supercells started as early as the late morning, while others do not have any of these developing.

Lastly, there is an inherent uncertainty in forecasting severe thunderstorms and especially tornadoes. This area of meteorology is constantly undergoing massive amounts of research in an attempt to crack the code of tornadoes. There is still so much to learn.

I have seen even better setups primed for tornadoes elsewhere in the nation fizzle to produce almost nothing. I have seen less ideal setups, even locally, produce a surprising amount of severe weather and tornadoes. There is still so much mystery in this area, there is a limit to how confident a forecast of this nature can be until the storms themselves are actually rumbling across the landscape.

While other weather sources will skip this uncertainty and just highlight the tornado risk, I want you to understand the nuances and limitations of modern weather forecasting, and not be drawn into hype and fear mongering but to be able to approach the weather with a sensible, educated approach.

How Today’s Weather May Impact You

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty as best we can to help you plan your day and stay safe today.

As I outlined above, the timing of the storm is uncertain, but this event could start as early as the late morning hours. The greatest chance for widespread storms will be in the late afternoon, roughly in the 4-7 PM window.

Tornadoes, damaging winds, and continuous lightning are the greatest risks. The atmosphere is not set up well for hail, though some cannot be totally ruled out if isolated supercell storms develop this afternoon.

Any storms will also produce torrential downpours, which could lead to some localized flooding. The heavy rain rates will also make driving difficult.

A tornado watch will likely be issued this afternoon. A tornado watch is issued for several hours over a large area to highlight an area where severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be possible.

A tornado warning, on the other hand, is issued for a short time over a small area to address an individual thunderstorm that either radar is indicating may have a tornado or has had a tornado reported. I would not be surprised to see several tornado warnings issued today.

Tornado warnings are serious and immediate action should be taken for protection, ideally heading into an interior basement room.

Severe thunderstorm warnings should also be taken seriously, as tornadoes can and sometimes do form with little warning from severe thunderstorms. Additionally, microbursts can produce damaging winds equal to weak tornadoes and can be deadly. After all, it does not matter much if the winds are rotating or coming in a straight line.

As I stressed yesterday, even with a heightened severe weather risk, the vast majority of individual locations across the region will probably not see severe weather. But it will be important to be aware of the weather and to take warnings seriously, as there may well be a few areas that get hit particularly hard with dangerous weather.

Plans for Additional Updates

Typically, during severe weather events, I set up a live blog here on flxweather.com and frequently post updates, analysis, the latest warnings, and radar shots. I plan to do so again this afternoon.

I will probably start the live blog when I see threatening storms starting to develop, or when the Storm Prediction Center is getting ready to issue the tornado watch.

Last time I ran a live blog, the initial influx of traffic to my website made it difficult for some people to connect. If this happens again, please be patient and try to connect again later.

The best way to know when I post the live blog is to sign up for email alerts of my posts at flxweather.com/email. I especially discourage relying on Facebook to bring you timely information due to its unreliable feed algorithm!

Quick Look Beyond Today

The severe weather threat will not last long after sunset, if it does at all. Thunderstorms will quickly move east and a cold front will move through the area.

Scattered showers will remain overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will only be in the upper 60s to near 70, but highs Thursday will mainly stick to the upper 70s.

Generally dry weather is expected through the weekend, though a few stray showers may try to sneak in on Saturday. Temperatures will be on the rise again as well.

Some unsettled, stormy weather will be possible during the early and mid parts of next week.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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