Last day of clouds, showers, and chilly daytime temperatures

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 16 2024 dark grey clouds fill the sky but a little sunlight from off camera to the right is illuminating brilliantly colored autumn trees which line an unmarked road beside a green field. More colorful trees extend across the background of the image.
Showers, clouds, and cool temperatures today will be replaced by sunshine and warming temperatures the rest of this week and into next week. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Pattern Change

A large, persistent low pressure system over eastern Canada will be replaced by an even larger, longer lasting high pressure that is building east from the center of the nation.

This sprawling high pressure takes up most of the eastern 2/3rds of the country but will not quite kick the low out of our neighborhood today.

Scattered lake effect showers are ongoing this morning as northerly flow on the backside of the low continues. These will persist through the morning but should wind down during the afternoon.

It will remain very cloudy through the afternoon as well, with only a few brief glimpses of sunshine expected.

As the high bumps into the low, wind speeds will increase slightly. Today’s northwest winds will be slightly over 10 mph with top gusts at or above 25 mph.

Temperatures will be held down again as well with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 40s but with some warmer areas.

Tonight, clouds will slowly break up to varying degrees. Any clearing will help temperatures fall. Widespread low and mid 30s are expected. Frost Advisories are in place for the northern counties, while southern areas do not have an advisory simply because the end of the growing season has already been declared.

Nonetheless, sensitive vegetation anywhere in the region may need protection tonight.

There may be a few clouds early on tomorrow morning, but high pressure will quickly take over with sun-filled skies.

Winds will still be out of the northwest but with much lighter wind speeds around 5 mph. Afternoon highs will jump into the low and mid 50s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed oct 16 | wed, clouds, some showers mid 40 | thur, mostly sunny mid 50 | fri, mostly sunny low 60 | sat, mostly sunny mid 60 | sun, mostly sunny upper 60 | mon, mostly sunny near 70 | tues, mostly sunny low 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Lots and Lots of Sun

Thursday will be just the start of a prolonged period of sunny skies and increasing temperatures as the high pressure builds in and dominates our weather.

Friday morning will still be chilly. While temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than Thursday morning, the chances for frost will probably be greater with clear skies and nearly calm winds.

Friday afternoon will see highs into the low 60s. Higher elevations may end up just short of 60 degrees.

Saturday will start with lows in the mid and upper 30s while afternoon highs reach the mid 60s.

Sunday may have a few thin clouds late in the day, but not enough to really interrupt the sunshine. Lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s while highs reach the upper 60s.

The sunny, dry weather will extend into next week, too.

Monday will push 70 degrees for many areas, and Tuesday will rise into the low 70s. Nighttime temperatures should remain in the 40s for most areas.

The weather becomes less certain for the middle of next week and beyond. Eventually, a cold front should attempt to break the weather pattern.

Models are split on how successful this will be, though, with a very wide range of possibilities showing.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed oct 16 | wed, clouds, some showers mid 40 | thur, mostly sunny mid 50 | fri, mostly sunny low 60 | sat, mostly sunny mid 60 | sun, mostly sunny upper 60 | mon, mostly sunny near 70 | tues, mostly sunny low 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.