Mid-Week Weather System
A strong weather system is developing over the middle of the country and will impact our region late today through Thursday.
This system is expected to produce a dangerous tornado outbreak today across the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys. Locally, our weather will be much less hazardous.
High pressure is still in control this morning, but clouds ahead of this system are streaming in. Sunshine will be limited today, though not completely absent.
Clouds will become thicker during the afternoon, with some scattered rain showers late as the warm front approaches.
These rain showers are most likely after 5 PM. A few rumbles of thunder and heavier downpours cannot be ruled out. Generally speaking, northern areas will see more shower coverage than southern areas.
Winds will start to increase from the southeast as the rain approaches, then will turn to the south and become strong this evening, especially over higher elevations such as the Bristol Hills and the hills south of Syracuse.
Here, wind speeds may approach 30 mph with gusts over 50 mph possible. At lower elevations, gusts over 40 mph will be possible, though some valley locations may be relatively sheltered and see lighter winds.
Temperatures will reach the mid 40s this afternoon and will remain steady into the evening twilight. Warmer air will then move in overnight from west to east and from lower elevations to higher elevations.
By Thursday morning, upper 50s will be possible in the Rochester area and Genesee Valley. Mid 50s will spread across the I-90 corridor all the way into Syracuse and south in the mid-lakes region for areas such as Penn Yan and Aurora.
Across the Southern Tier, low 50s are more likely for early Thursday morning while some upper 40s hold on across Cortland County and surrounding higher elevations.
After a period of dry weather during the evening and early overnight, widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder will pass through during the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
Showers will become less widespread, lighter in nature, and shorter lived during the midday and afternoon hours on Thursday. Most of this time should be dry and some breaks of sun may be possible.
Blustery winds will remain early Thursday but will gradually weaken somewhat. Occasional gusts to 40 mph will still be possible.
Temperatures will peak Thursday afternoon with highs near or above 70 degrees. Any breaks of sunshine will help the temperature climb.
Winds will not turn to the northwest until late Thursday evening, sending temperatures into the low 40s by Friday morning.
Cooler and Unsettled
Friday will be a quiet day, though clouds will likely be plentiful. A few breaks of sun will be possible in the afternoon, but they will not be widespread or long lived.
Winds will be light from the northwest. Temperatures will be cooler than Thursday, but warmer than they have been the last couple of days. Look for highs to still reach the mid 50s.
Widespread rain will move back in during the predawn hours Saturday and continue into the morning. Even the afternoon should still have numerous showers about, making for a rather wet day. Rain totals Saturday may exceed an inch in some areas.
Despite the rain, temperatures will top out in the upper 50s. South and southeast winds will again be blustery, especially over those same higher elevations as tonight.
Sunday also looks showery, but there are some uncertainties lingering in the position of the frontal boundary that will be over the area.
Most likely, it will be a showery, cooler day with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. There are still a few models that keep the front north, resulting in less rain and warmer temperatures.
Cool air will definitely settle in early next week with highs in the 40s Monday and 30s Tuesday. There may be some snow on Tuesday as well, which could lead to some light, short-lived accumulations.
Temperatures should rebound toward 50 degrees late next week, though the spread in possible scenarios showing on the models is large.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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