High heat and humidity will continue to be hazardous through Friday. Occasional showers and storms will be possible, any of which could become severe. A cold front on Saturday will bring more widespread thunderstorms, but also retreating heat and humidity levels.
Published Wednesday, July 1
Wednesday
Hazards: High heat. Severe storms.
Precipitation: Scattered storms or quick moving clusters, mainly this afternoon and tonight
The heat and humidity will continue to increase and will reach hazardous levels today. High temperatures will be in the low and mid the 90s and a few urban areas could push into the upper 90s. Dewpoints will range through the 70s, making it feel extremely humid. The resultant heat index values will be over 100 for most areas. Urban centers and areas north of the Thruway may see heat index values between 110-115.
For those administrators and event planners familiar with the wet bulb globe temperature, these values will be near or in the ‘extreme’ or ‘code black’ levels as they reach the upper 80s and low 90s.
Our position on the edge of the large area of heat expanding through the eastern United States will keep us prone to showers and thunderstorms, either as individual pop-up cells, or as small, quick-moving clusters. Any storm that develops will be capable of producing severe weather, including damaging winds and hail, not to mention frequent lightning and torrential downpours. Storm clusters in particular will pose a damaging wind risk.
The chance for storms will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours, but could extend into the overnight as well.
It will be another very warm night with lows ranging through the 70s to near 80 degrees. This will increase the cumulative heat stress.
Thursday
Hazards: High heat.
Precipitation: Generally dry during the day, some storm chances overnight
On Thursday, the area of heat will push further northeast, taking us away from the active edge regions and resulting in a generally dry day. Precipitation chances may increase Thursday night, but this remains uncertain.
However, that will mean temperatures will likely be even higher, with many areas in the upper 90s and a few places likely hitting 100 degrees. Humidity levels may be a touch less than today, but not noticeably so. Heat index values will again be well over 100 and in some cases over 110. Wet bulb globe temperature will be in the same ranges (upper 80s and low 90s, which is classified as extreme or “Code Black”) as on Wednesday.
Friday
Hazards: High heat. Severe thunderstorms.
Precipitation: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
The core of the heat will pull back a bit on Friday, both knocking back temperatures and humidity levels a bit and increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms.
It will still be plenty hot and humid, and since heat stress accumulates, even these slightly reduced levels will still be hazardous. Temperatures will mainly top out in the 90-95 degree range while dewpoints remain around 70 degrees. This will result in heat index values up to 100.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, and the potential for one of those fast-moving storm clusters will need to be monitored. Like Wednesday, any storms that develop will be capable of turning severe with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
While uncertain, the early model projections show most of the activity out of the region by evening, but with fireworks displays starting for the 4th of July, it bears close watching.
Saturday
Hazards: Thunderstorms
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
A cold front will push through the area on Saturday, ending the heat wave. However, showers and thunderstorms are likely. It is too early to tell when exactly the highest chances for rain will be, but the morning or midday may be more likely than the afternoon. Likewise, the chance for severe thunderstorms remains uncertain.
Temperatures will top out in the low and mid 80s. Dewpoints should drop during the afternoon. Nighttime temperatures should drop below 70 degrees.
Sunday
Hazards: Almost none
Precipitation: Scattered showers, a stray thunderstorm.
Saturday’s front will get hung up to our south, so a few showers may be possible, especially across the southern half of the region. A couple stray storms cannot be ruled out, but these are not expected to be severe.
Temperatures will be in the low 80s with moderate humidity levels.
Monday
Hazards: Almost none
Precipitation: Scattered showers, a stray thunderstorm.
Monday will look a lot like Sunday with the front remaining stalled out to our south. The chances for rain may be a bit less, and temperatures may be a bit cooler
Tuesday
Hazards: Almost none
Precipitation: None expected at this time.
Tuesday looks dry at this point, which may allow temperatures to rise to the mid 80s. Humidity levels will be moderate and heat index values should stay below 90.
Later Next Week & Beyond
Late next week generally looks dry with temperatures settling into the low and mid 80s during the day and 60s at night. The spread in possibilities shown on the models next weekend and beyond is too broad to draw any firm conclusions at this point.
Leave a Reply