Slow-Moving Front
A frontal boundary has been creeping its way eastward across the Great Lakes for the last few days.
Ahead of the front, our weather went from hot Wednesday to stormy yesterday. Localized severe storms brought pockets of damaging winds and hail, some as large as 3 inches in diameter (larger than a baseball!) last night near Keuka Lake.
The focal point for thunderstorms and potentially severe weather will shift east today, though an isolated strong storm over the southeastern Finger Lakes will still be possible.
Clouds will be thicker today than yesterday, holding temperatures in the low and mid 70s. That will limit the intensity of any storms in our area.
With the front moving through, however, there should be several waves of showers, widespread rain, and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day.
Locally heavy rain could cause some pockets of flash flooding even.
For the most part, however, it will just be the latest rainy day for the Finger Lakes.
The front will continue to crawl eastward, passing to our east during the overnight hours tonight. Showers will be possible into early Saturday morning.
Along and immediately behind the front, pressures will rise and winds will be light. This will help compress the smoke in the atmosphere right at the surface in the lowest 10-20 feet.
This will likely reduce our air quality into the orange (unhealthy for sensitive groups) or even red (unhealthy for all) zone. I have been watching this happen for days as the front has trekked from the Midwest across the Great Lakes.
The smoke models are largely missing this phenomenon, making it a perfect example of true weather forecasting, which goes beyond blindly following weather models and relies on current observations and expert extrapolation based on years of forecasting experience.
Air quality should improve as the day goes on and northwest and north winds start to pick up. By the afternoon, wind speeds will be around 10 mph, helping mix up the lower levels of the atmosphere and reducing the compression of the smoke at the surface.
The winds will also help push dry air into the area, decreasing the chances for stray showers and increasing our sunshine.
Temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s on Saturday, followed by a mostly clear night with low and mid 50s.
More Unsettled Weather
Sunday is expected to remain dry, at least until late in the day. Rain showers may approach from the southwest by the late afternoon, but models are split on this.
I lean more toward the dry side, which has been the consistent pattern for days—the introduction of rain is limited on the models to just a couple of the most recent runs. I’d like to see more consistency in the trend before jumping on it.
Highs on Sunday will stick to the mid 70s with more clouds than sun. Winds will be from the southeast with speeds of 5-10 mph.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on a scattered basis Monday and Tuesday. A lack of atmospheric fuel for the storms due to mild temperatures aloft will limit storm development and growth.
That being said, wind fields are supportive of severe storms, so anything that does manage to get going will need to be watched. Forecast uncertainty remains high, and any increase in atmospheric fuel could lead to more widespread concern.
Temperatures both days are expected to remain in the mid 70s, as will Wednesday.
The chances for thunderstorms are even lower on Wednesday, but a few showers will still dot the region.
Overall, most of these three days will probably end up dry, and a few areas may even sneak through all three days with little to no rainfall.
A few lingering showers will be possible early Thursday before sunshine takes over. Temperatures will rise to around 80 degrees.
Warm air will persist through next weekend, followed by unsettled weather early the following week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Kelly Doolittle
Hi Drew – are you saying that tomorrow, Saturday, the air quality could be bad for a while? And if so, approximately what times would that be for the Ithaca region?
Thank you!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Yes, most likely during the morning hours and especially early on.