While all eyes turn toward the potential for significant snow Sunday and Monday, there is still some snow showers and lake effect before the big storm to address.
As for the storm, be wary of premature snow amount forecasts and images of single model runs passed off as a forecast, especially on social media. This event is still several days away and there are uncertainties to sort through. As always, you can rely on Finger Lakes Weather for a truthful, no-hype approach to this system. My focus is on keeping people safe with the best information I can provide, not generating buzz and unnecessary anxiety. With that said, you can trust that if I do say things will get bad, that I am genuinely concerned.
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» For a more detailed breakdown of today’s weather, check out today’s Weather Planner post!
Thursday
What: Scattered snow showers, brief snow bursts
Impacts: Minor
Most of the time, it will not be snowing today. In fact, breaks of sunshine may be more common than snow. However, scattered snow showers and a few heavier bursts will still be possible from time to time. These may lay down a quick coating on the roads and drop visibility, but they should be short lived. These will be most likely during the midday hours as a cold front passes through.
Temperatures will top out near or slightly above 30 degrees before that front arrives, then fall back into the 20s behind the front. Winds will get a bit blustery as well with a period of gusts over 30 mph.
Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon
What: A few more snow showers
Impacts: Minor
Tonight and for much of tomorrow, it will be more of the same. Most of the time will be dry, but an occasional snow shower or brief squall will remain possible. The predawn and early morning hours Friday will be most likely for another round of localized squalls as a second cold front passes through.
Temperatures will continue their downward march, reaching the upper 10s Friday morning and the low 10s Friday afternoon. Winds will again be blustery, coming in from the west-northwest with gusts as high as 40 mph. With the falling temperatures, wind chills will drop below zero by midday and may be -10 degree or locally colder by the evening.
Friday Night-Saturday
What: Lake effect snow
Where: Northeastern half of the region
Impacts: Locally moderate
A band of lake effect snow will develop Friday evening and move south into the northeastern half of the Finger Lakes. The band will remain over the general area through the night and most of Saturday, though its actual location will wobble around.
Snow will be steadiest over Wayne, Cayuga, and Cortland counties. Portions of Ontario, Seneca, Tompkins, and Onondaga counties will see the snow come and go. Localized amounts over 6 inches are possible within these areas, as the snow will be quite fluffy and quick to accumulate. Winds will be light, so blowing and drifting will be minimal.
It will remain very cold with temperatures Saturday starting out near 0 degrees and not reaching 10 degrees in the afternoon for most areas. The lighter winds will keep wind chills in check, but these will still be below zero throughout the night and day.
Saturday Night
What: Widespread snow begins
Impacts: Low-Moderate
There will be only a short window of time between the lake effect dissipating Saturday evening as winds temporarily go calm and widespread snow moving in. Most areas should see an onset of the snow sometime late in the evening or overnight. At first, I expect the snow to be fine with small flakes, so by Sunday morning, there may only be a couple inches on the ground. The timing of the onset is still a bit uncertain. Temperatures should drop back into the mid 0s for a time, but may start to rise slightly by sunrise.
Sunday-Sunday Night
What: Heavy snow
Impacts: Very High
The bulk of the storm is expected to come on Sunday. Snow flake size will increase, allowing the snow to pile up quicker. Intense snow bands capable of snowfall rates over an inch an hour are certainly possible. With temperatures stuck in the low and mid 10s, road salt will be ineffective. With the fast rate of snowfall, plow will have a very hard time making much progress in keeping the roads clear. As things look, travel at any time Sunday looks very hazardous.
This looks to be a very large, widespread storm. This means the snow will persist all day across the entire region. Snow amounts will come down to several factors, including the temperature profile above the surface, the presence and location of small intense snow bands, and the raw output of precipitation that this system will be capable of. Widespread double-digit snow amounts look likely, but it is too early for exact amounts.
During this time, the winds will be light, with top gusts generally under 20 mph.
Monday
What: Snow ends… for some
Impacts: Uncertain, potentially very high
The further out in time we get, the more uncertain the fine details become. However, there is a potential for lighter snow on the backside of the storm with locally heavy lake enhancements even throughout the day on Monday. If this sets up, several more inches may fall, which could push this storm from a significant to a major event.
Furthermore, winds will pick up on Monday as well. It is too early to tell how strong the winds will get, but gusts in the 25-35 mph range look reasonable. While not blizzard level, the cold temperatures and fluffy snow will result in widespread blowing and drifting of the snow that fell. Temperatures will continue to hold in the teens, keeping road salt ineffective and knocking wind chills back toward subzero levels. If this pans out, it could produce dangerous conditions and prolong the impacts of this storm.
Again… there are many uncertainties at play, so continue to check back on the forecast.
Tuesday-Wednesday
What: A few snow showers, but still cold
Impacts: Minor
Winds look as though they will become less well aligned for lake effect snow Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, stray snow showers may be possible.
Tuesday morning may see lows around 0 degrees, while Wednesday morning will only be slightly warmer. Afternoon highs will be in the 10s.
Late Next Week and Beyond
A cold, wintry pattern will persist through next week and into February. Temperatures do look like they will eventually return to the 20s after next weekend. At a minimum, lake effect snow will come and go.
There is always a tendency after a big weather event for hype-driven weather pages to look every under rock for a “here we go again” event. And the models this time of the year and in this type of pattern almost always supply them with something to spin up. Be very wary of that next week and next weekend, and stick to FLX Weather for honest, accurate, accessible information.
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