Showers and thunderstorms are possible but uncertain Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Tuesday has the highest chance for rain. Heat and humidity will continue to build, with heat index values over 100 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. The heat will start to back off slightly on Friday, and then more substantially this weekend.
Published Tuesday, June 30th
Tuesday
What: Getting hot. Showers and storms possible.
As of 7 AM, an area of rain and thunderstorms was approaching the northwestern shore of Lake Ontario, tracking southeast. These storms are associated with a small disturbance in the atmosphere. The computer models are still a mixture of possibilities, but based on the radar and real-time atmospheric conditions, it looks like these will at least come into northern parts of the region this morning, and at least some shower should survive into the southern parts of the region.
The question then becomes whether anything additional fires up this afternoon. This would be most likely over the eastern half of the region. If any storms do pop up later, there could be some strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
As a reminder, any severe thunderstorm warnings will show automatically in this post and on the FLX Weather homepage.
Temperatures will reach the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon, even with the showers this morning.
Wednesday
What: Hazardous heat. A few storms?
The heat and humidity will go up another level on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low and mid the 90s and a few urban areas could push into the upper 90s. Dewpoints will range through the 70s, making it feel drippingly humid. The resultant heat index values will be over 100 for most areas, and a few areas could see a heat index approach or exceed 110 degrees.
These levels of heat and humidity can be hazardous, especially since we have had so little heat this year so far and we are unaccustomed to it.
There is again an uncertain chance for showers and thunderstorms, though the overall chances for rain look less than on Tuesday at this point. Again, eastern areas will be more prone to thunderstorm development, and again, some stronger storms will be possible if anything pop up.
Nighttime temperatures will only drop to the mid 70s, but a few urban areas may have a hard time even getting below 80 degrees.
Note: If you are an administrator/event organizer familiar with the more technical “wet bulb globe temperature”, know that it will be approaching the extreme classification near 90 degrees both Wednesday and again on Thursday.
Thursday
What: Hazardous heat.
Thursday may have hotter actual temperatures than Wednesday, but the humidity may back off slightly. That may result in our highest temperatures of the week coming on Thursday, but the highest heat index values coming on Wednesday. Most areas should see temperatures between 95-100 degrees, with the triple-digit heat most likely in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier. Heat index values will still be over 100, but have less of a chance of reaching 110 compared to Wednesday.
Either way, it will still be hazardous, especially since heat stress builds day-to-day, especially when nighttime temperatures remain so warm as well.
The slightly lower humidity will reduce the chances for rain to almost zero. A stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out at this point, though.
Nighttime temperatures will again be well into the 70s.
Friday
What: Still hot. A few late storms.
The core of the heat will pull back a bit on Friday, leading to temperatures and humidity levels closer to Thursday than Wednesday. Temperatures are more likely to stick to the 90-95 degree range, but some heat index values may still reach 100 degrees. Practically speaking, with the continued building heat stress, these temperatures and heat index values will be more hazardous than they would be at the start of a heat event or on an isolated day.
The chances for some pop-up showers and storms will increase slightly, with the usual caveats about the uncertainty in how it all plays out. At this time, the early and mid afternoon seem the most likely time for a few storms.
Saturday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
Temperatures will continue to back off on Saturday in a slightly more meaningful way with highs in the mid 80s and heat index values between 85-90 degrees.
Scattered showers and storms are possible as a cold front moves through. The overall set up looks more favorable for showers and storms than Friday, but it should not be a total, all-day washout.
Sunday
What: A few showers.
Temperatures will stick to the mid 80s on Sunday. Saturday’s front will get hung up to our south, so a few showers may be possible, especially across the southern half of the region.
Monday
What: A few showers.
Monday will look a lot like Sunday with the front remaining stalled out to our south. The chances for rain may be a bit less, and temperatures may be a bit cooler
Next Week
The heat and humidity look contained to this week. Next week, temperatures will be closer to the climatological averages with daily highs somewhere around or a bit above 80 degrees. Precipitation will come and go with some frequency, so it will not be a dry period… but I suspect that the day-to-day weather will still have plenty of dry time to get outdoors.
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