Tuesday’s Weather Slowly Improves
Some snow showers are scattered about the Finger Lakes this morning, leaving a thin coating of white over some areas.
These snow showers will drift northeast and dissipate this morning. By 9 or 10 am, most areas should be snow free, though a stray flurry cannot be ruled out into the afternoon.
Skies will slowly transition from cloudy to sunny over the course of the afternoon. A good amount of sunshine will be possible by the end of the day as a sprawling area of high pressure over the middle of the country drifts east.
Between this high and the small disturbance responsible for this morning’s snow, northwest winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts around 25 mph.
These winds should help keep temperatures down, despite any sunshine. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to Monday, topping out around 40 degrees.
Clear skies this evening will start to give way to some new clouds after midnight. Temperatures may initially dip into the upper 20s but should be around 30 degrees at daybreak on Wednesday.
Rain Chances, Temperatures Rise
Wednesday morning will be mostly cloudy, but mostly dry as well. An isolated shower or flurry cannot be totally ruled out, but the chances for rain will increase towards the evening.
An area of scattered showers should move into the region around sunset. A little wet snow may mix in over higher elevations after the sun goes down.
Before the rain and snow arrive, temperatures will reach a high in the mid 40s for most areas with a couple places sneaking into the upper 40s.
Temperatures will drop back into the mid 30s Wednesday night, but temperatures above the surface will begin to warm. Therefore, the chances for snow mixing in will actually decrease overnight Wednesday as a few more scattered showers drift through.
More widespread, steady rain will fall Thursday morning out ahead of a warm front. This steady rain will transition to scattered showers for Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures Thursday will depend on how far the front progresses and whether any sunshine works out. Temperatures should at least reach the low and mid 50s, but highs near 60 degrees are also possible, especially for more western areas.
The Extreme Uncertainty of the Weekend
A very strong warm front will set up across the region Friday into Saturday as an intense storm system develops over the middle of the nation.
This front will separate very warm and chilly air masses with very little middle ground in between.
Areas further north have a lower chance of seeing warm weather, but the position of the front will be the determining factor and is not something that can be resolved at this point.
The European Ensemble models illustrate this perfectly. The Ensembles are a set of 51 model runs from the same model, but each model run has slight differences in its data or equations. This results in a variety of possible outcomes.
I like to look at the range of these outcomes to get an idea how confident I should be in the model.
For Saturday’s high temperatures, the range is extreme. Even if you ignore the warmest and coldest 50% of the ensembles, the most-average 50% still range from nearly 70 degrees to 40 degrees for Ithaca. Add in the outliers, and everything from 30 degrees to nearly 80 degrees is a possibility!
This is a testament to the strength of this front and how important its position will be. It is truly anyone’s guess which side of the front we will end up on, or if it will split the region in two. This is a very important point to stress. With the prolonged period of below normal temperatures, there is a real temptation to jump on the idea of a warm weekend, but it very well may not come to pass. Beware of hype that ignores this fact.
Heavy precipitation and strong winds will be possible Sunday into Monday as the storm system pulls closer.
More details on all of this will become apparent in the coming days.
How Much is FLX Weather Worth to You?
Today is the second day of my Fund Drive to keep Finger Lakes Weather running. I am very much in need of more support to keep this service viable and running.
Please take a moment to consider how much you may be able to contribute on a monthly basis as fair compensation for the many hours of work I have and plan to put into Finger Lakes Weather.
As part of this Fund Drive, I will have my second video presentation tonight on Tornadoes in New York. This is a fascinating topic and you are sure to learn a lot! Please plan to tune in tonight at 7 pm. If you are unable to catch the presentation live, a recording will be available.
If you missed last night’s presentation, you can catch it here.
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