Fog, sun, clouds, and humidity

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 12 2018 fog sun clouds
Localized morning fog will gradually yield to mixed skies across the Finger Lakes as the humidity creeps up. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Quiet With Some Clouds

The Finger Lakes will enjoy a fairly quiet Wednesday though areas of cloudiness are still likely throughout the day.

Some areas are off to a foggy start this morning, and a somewhat rare Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from Seneca Lake eastward. In these areas, expect patches of very dense fog that will greatly reduce visibility.

While fog is not something uncommon in our area, foggy conditions this morning are in less common areas and will linger longer than normal, which prompted the National Weather Service to issue the Dense Fog Advisories. By the midday hours, most of the fog should dissipate.

In the wake of the fog, and for the areas that remain fog-free, skies will be a mix of clouds and some breaks of sun. Sunshine should be a bit easier to come by today, but there will still be plenty of cloud cover to contend with.

High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s with a few low 70s across the Southern Tier. Dewpoints will rise into the mid 60s, which is a noticeable, but not oppressive level of humidity.

Rain is not expected in our region today though some scattered showers and storms will be nearby over northern Pennsylvania and southeast New York.

There will be a better chance for some of these showers Thursday, especially across the southern portions of the region, and on Friday area-wide. Neither day looks like a washout and many areas will probably see little to no rain.

Temperatures, and humidity levels, will continue to rise through the end of the week. Highs will push 80 degrees on Thursday with low 80s widespread across the north on Friday.

Weekend Preview

A large area of high pressure should build into the region for this weekend.

The increase in temperature and humidity will continue, which may lead to a few isolated showers and storms from time to time. Like the late week time period, many areas will see little if any rain through the weekend.

Of the two days this weekend, the chance for rain seems a bit higher on Saturday.

High temperatures on Saturday will be similar to Friday with low 80s in the north and upper 70s in the south. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s.

Sunday may be just a degree or two warmer with a few mid 80s showing up near Rochester, low 80s spreading south, and upper 70s becoming less common across the Southern Tier.

This high pressure system will have a major impact on the path of Hurricane Florence and will keep that storm locked away over the Southeastern United States. As the high moves out, there is a chance some moisture from Florence could work its way north towards the middle of next week, but that remains very uncertain.

Hurricane Florence Updates

hurricane florence satellite forecast update
Hurricane Florence as seen by satellite at 6:07 am EDT on Wednesday, September 12, 2018. [NOAA]
Hurricane Florence remains a powerful and dangerous category 4 hurricane. Top wind speeds this morning were set at 130 mph, which is the same as yesterday.

The size of Florence has grown in the last 24 hours though, as is evident by the large, well defined eye on the accompanying satellite photo. Overall, Florence is a medium-sized hurricane, but strong winds extend out far from the center.

Florence will likely strengthen today as it moves over the Gulf Stream current and encounters little resistance from the atmosphere. As it approaches land tomorrow, it will start to encounter stronger winds aloft, which will disrupt the storm slightly.

The expected track of Florence continues to be refined and updated. There is very good agreement in the models resulting in high confidence that Florence will approach southeastern North Carolina. After that, things become less certain.

Most models have shifted southward with some keeping the eye of Florence out over open water as it skirts along the coast of South Carolina. Florence could work as far south as Georgia before coming inland.

Regardless, with the size and strength of Florence, significant impacts are likely well inland, including rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches. Preparations should be rushed to completion with the outer bands expected to reach shore by Thursday afternoon.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.