Late Day Showers
The cold, dreary weather of the last several days is behind us.
That does not mean we are totally done with the rain, however. An active weather pattern not unusual for Spring will keep periods of rain in the forecast.
Wednesday will be dry for most of the day with the best chance for rain coming in this evening. There may be a brief midday shower as well, but not all areas will see that rain.
Today’s rain chances are being produced by a small low pressure system tracking quickly across southern Canada. The midday rain chance will be produced by the system’s warm front, while the late day rain will come with its cold front.
Outside of the showers, skies will be a mix of sunshine and some cloud cover. Temperatures will rise into the mid 60s this afternoon.
Showers will begin to develop and move into the region after 4 pm this afternoon. A few small cells may pop up with brief heavier downpours and a rumble of thunder or two. Showers will continue through the overnight. All areas should see at least a little rain. Amounts will generally be on the light side, though.
Thursday will share some similarities to Wednesday. Much of the day will be dry with some sun mixing with clouds. The chances for rain will increase late in the day as another system tracks across Canada.
Temperatures on Thursday will not be as warm with highs around 60 degrees. While a couple light showers may be possible in the late afternoon and evening, most of this rain will move through after midnight.
Rain showers will increase Friday morning with several hours of steady rain possible. A few downpours may be embedded within that rain. Showers will linger into the afternoon, especially over eastern areas.
Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures should mange to rise into the low or mid 60s Friday.
Pattern Adjustments
The Finger Lakes will continue to be subject to an active storm track for the foreseeable future. However, hints of a shift towards warmer weather and a greater chance for thunderstorms are appearing on the models.
Saturday is looking like another day that will mostly be dry, but where a late day shower or two cannot be totally ruled out. For the most part though, there should be some sunshine with temperatures again in the low to mid 60s.
Warmer weather will build north this weekend as high pressure develops off the coast of the Carolinas and a storm system tracks north into the Midwest. This set up results in a broad southerly flow across the eastern third of the nation, including in the Finger Lakes.
The question for Sunday becomes how far north the warm front associated with the Midwestern system advances.
To the north of the front, temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with showers possible. South of the front, a very warm and rather humid air mass will take hold. Temperatures could approach 80 degrees with muggy dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms with heavy downpours would be possible.
Either scenario seems equally likely for the Finger Lakes at this time.
As the low pressure tracks east through the Great Lakes, the chances for getting into the warm, humid air will increase for Monday. Again, thunderstorms will be possible, some with locally heavy downpours. This situation will need to be monitored for possible flash flooding but is still a long way out for any certainty.
Wednesday and Friday next week also appear to have a possibility for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures next week will be near or above normal but will depend on the presence and timing of any weather systems.
Weather History
Mid-May can be a very active and even dangerous time for the Finger Lakes and surrounding areas. Check out these recent past events:
May 2014 Flooding
Repeated rounds of heavy rain caused significant flash flooding in and around Penn Yan on May 13th, 2014. Additional flooding occurred on and off for the next several weeks.
» May 14, 2014 FLX Weather Facebook post
May 15, 2018 Tornado Outbreak
A major severe weather event, including multiple tornadoes, impacted areas just southeast of the Finger Lakes on May 15, 2018.
» May 15, 2018 Severe Weather Recap blog post
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