Showery Thursday, Windy Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 12 2019 showers friday wind weekend forecast
Scattered showers are likely through the middle of Thursday. Gusty winds will develop Friday ahead of a front for Saturday. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Changing Weather Conditions

Several weather features will be in play over the next few days, keeping our weather variable.

Our main point of influence for today will be a stalled out frontal boundary that is set up roughly from New York City to Cleveland to Chicago. This places the Finger Lakes on the cool north side of the front.

Several waves of energy are traveling along the front bringing areas of showers. Scattered rain is in the Finger Lakes early this morning and showers should be expected from time to time into the midday hours.

Most of the rain should be light, though a briefly heavier shower may be possible.

The front will be pushed south this afternoon as high pressure builds into eastern Canada. Our chances for rain will drop after lunchtime. A little sun may even try to work its way out before the day is done.

With the showers, clouds, and a gentle north breeze, temperatures will top out in the just the mid and upper 60s today.

The high pressure will turn southeast tonight and will be centered near Boston by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a moderately strong low pressure system will track into the Upper Great Lakes. The difference in pressure between these two systems will lead to increasing wind speeds.

Wind gusts for most of Friday will be in the 25-30 mph range from the southeast.

Southeast winds can be tricky in our region as cool air and moisture from the Atlantic Ocean get trapped in the low levels of the atmosphere and pushed inland. Usually this results in some clouds for at least the eastern Southern Tier and possibly Central New York.

However, as the southeast winds come off the higher elevations and flow downslope into the Finger Lakes, the clouds dissipate and temperatures warm. This should play out to some degree tomorrow, especially early in the day.

I do expect sunshine for much of the region during the afternoon with temperatures warming into the low or even mid 70s.

Winds will increase Friday evening as they turn more towards the south. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be commonplace with the strongest gusts in the hills near Syracuse and the Bristol Hills south of Canandaigua.

Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s and low 60s Friday night.

Weekend Weather and Beyond

On Saturday, a cold front will sweep into the region as the Great Lakes low continues to track northeastward into Canada.

This front will not have much moisture to work with and it will lack support from the upper levels of the atmosphere.

As a result, expect some clouds and scattered showers, but it should not be a washout by any means on Saturday.

Temperatures Saturday will be near 70 degrees. It could be warmer if some sun works out.

The atmosphere will quickly recover from the front and Sunday should turn out warmer than Saturday. Look for plenty of sunshine pushing temperatures into the mid 70s.

After a few isolated showers Sunday night or early Monday, most of next week looks to be quiet and dry. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s or 80s.

The tropics will need to be monitored with a high chance for the next named storm to develop over the weekend somewhere in the vicinity of Florida. The strength and path of this system are of course too uncertain to resolve at this point, as is where the rain from the remains of the storm could end up by late next week.

If this system does develop, it will be given the name Humberto (pronounced oom-BAIR-toh).

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.