Wet, Raw Weather
After a lull in the rain overnight, precipitation is moving back into the Finger Lakes this morning.
A strong area of low pressure is centered just north of Boston this morning. The low will meander north-northwest today, throwing moisture back into our region on its backside.
Already rain is returning to the area and precipitation should become more widespread as the morning continues. Cold air wrapping into the system will cross the warm waters of Lake Ontario, enhancing the precipitation near the lake shore and in the favored lake effect areas.
The peak of the precipitation should be from the late morning into the early to midafternoon, after which the rain will start to diminish. Showers will continue into the evening with areas of fog and drizzle over higher elevations.
Rain amounts today will be lowest across the Southern Tier, where under a quarter-inch is expected. The heaviest amounts will be southeast of Lake Ontario across Cayuga, Onondaga, Cortland, and northeastern Tompkins Counties. Between a half-inch and one inch could fall here.
In addition to the rain, it will again be windy today. Expect frequent gusts of 30-40 mph. Higher elevations in Central New York and along the NY-PA State Line may gust over 45 mph at times. These winds will be from the northwest throughout the day.
With the rain and steady supply of cold air, temperatures will move very little today. Temperatures this morning are mostly in the mid 40s, though parts of the Southern Tier are starting closer to 40 degrees. High temperatures will only be two to four degrees higher that this morning’s lows.
Weather Settles Down, Warms Up
Throughout tonight, precipitation will continue to wind down and wind speeds will drop. A few showers will still linger in the area early Friday, and higher elevations will likely remain locked in the fog and drizzle, possibly well into the afternoon.
Clouds will remain in place throughout Friday and winds will continue to come from the northwest. These factors will again hold temperatures mostly in the 40s, though it should be a couple degrees warmer than today.
Skies will clear Friday night, leading to a frosty Saturday morning. Temperatures should drop into the 30s with the typically colder locations across the Southern Tier dropping to near 30 degrees.
Sunshine and a gentle south wind will help temperatures rebound for Saturday afternoon with highs pushing into the upper 50s.
Sunday continues to be a tricky forecast with a small but uncertain chance for showers. If it rains and remains cloudy, temperatures will stick in the 50s. If it is dry and sunnier, 60s will be possible. I continue to lean more towards the dry, warmer scenario.
Monday will continue to the warming trend with highs pushing into the 60s. The chances for rain look even less on Monday, but are not completely gone.
Strong winds will develop on Tuesday as the next system rolls in. Rain, some heavy, will move in late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Temperatures will not drop much behind this system, with low 50s for next Wednesday before a chance for more warm weather to end next week.
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