Mild Start to the week before more active weather

finger lakes weather forecast monday january 13 2020 sun clouds mild rain snow hype
After a few pockets of freezing drizzle this morning, temperatures will push into the 40s Monday and Tuesday with quiet conditions before colder, more active weather targets the Finger Lakes. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Mostly Quiet and Mild

The work week will get off to a generally quiet and mild start before a more active pattern returns for the latter half of the week and weekend.

Before getting to the warmer temperatures this afternoon, there is a very small window for some ice this morning, particularly the further west one goes.

A small disturbance passing through the Great Lakes may touch off a bit of spotty freezing drizzle before temperatures rise above freezing. At 7 AM, there was little to nothing on the radar, but the National Weather Service had issued several Winter Weather Advisories, just in case.

The threat for pockets of ice should end by mid-morning as temperatures push into the mid 30s. With south winds, highs this afternoon will range through the 40s.

Upper 40s are expected around Keuka, Seneca, and Cayuga Lake, as well as portions of the Southern Tier including Elmira. Mid 40s are expected most other places with a few low 40s along Lake Ontario.

Skies will be mostly cloudy, but some breaks of sun are expected, especially during the afternoon hours.

Partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall back to near or just below 30 degrees. It will be another quick jump in temperature, though, with all but the higher elevations seeing at least the upper 40s tomorrow. A few areas could even break 50 degrees again.

Clouds will increase late Tuesday and a few stray rain showers may sneak in for the late afternoon and evening.

Winds will turn to the northwest for Wednesday, holding temperatures closer to 40 degrees.

Active Weather Ahead

Wednesday night, a weak area of low pressure will move very near to or directly over the Finger Lakes. As winds turn to the south ahead of this system Wednesday evening, temperatures should rise into the 40s, keeping the precipitation all rain.

Temperatures will then drop into the low 30s Thursday morning and remain there through the afternoon. Moisture wrapping around the backside of the low will bring some light snow to the region. Only an inch or so is expected, with some areas not even seeing that much.

Thursday night, temperatures tumble into the teens and lake effect snow will kick in. Some areas may see another couple inches before high pressure builds in for Friday. Friday will then be quite sunny, but cold, with highs struggling to get to 20 degrees.

A larger, more significant storm system will then track our way for the weekend. This system should lift northeast into the Great Lakes and then has potential to redevelop off the New England coast. Our primary concern will be what happens before the redevelopment.

The track of the low will be a major factor in the weather we see. Precipitation should start as snow on Saturday thanks to the cold air from Friday. Whether we stay all snow or turn to rain will be a major question all week.

This system has already been generating an inordinate amount of hype over the weekend. This hype has already needed be changed, as it was originally calling for significant snow on Friday (instead it will be sunny!).

Be very wary of any forecasts that call for specific amounts this far in advance. There is a lot yet to be determined about this system.

Chances are, the apps and websites that are outputting snow amounts already (and likely changing their projections several times a day, sometimes drastically) are simply pulling data straight from the models with no actual human forecasting involved. These services cannot be relied upon. Use at your own risk.

Lake effect snow will likely kick up on Sunday behind the system, continuing into Monday and possibly even Tuesday. With plenty of moisture and cold air, the lake effect behind the system has as much potential for areas of significant snow as the storm system itself.

Temperatures will turn much colder behind the system, with highs Monday and Tuesday in the teens. However, a moderating trend is expected toward the end of next week.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.