Strong Storm System
An intense area of low pressure is located over Michigan this morning and will track north-northeast today as it continues to intensify.
The main batch of rain associated with this system for our area has already lifted through. A few scattered showers will be possible this morning, but most of the time will be dry.
Winds are already strong with gusts as high as 54 mph recorded before 8 AM. The wind will continue to be strong through the morning and afternoon, coming from the south. Top gusts of 50-60 mph are likely throughout most of the Finger Lakes, where a High Wind Warning is in effect.
The southeastern corner of the Finger Lakes will see slightly lower maximum gusts, so a lesser Wind Advisory is in effect for those areas.
Rain will increase again this afternoon as a cold front draws near. There should be little if any sun before the front rolls in, which will limit the warming we see. Highs should still break into the low 60s, but temperatures reaching the upper 60s or even 70 degrees seems less likely.
Those warmer temperatures would be necessary to substantiate a severe thunderstorm threat. A few rumbles of thunder will still be possible, especially over and near the Wind Advisory area. Any storms that develop will probably not have much lightning but will still be capable of a few locally severe wind gusts. The tornado threat is very low.
If temperatures warm more than expected, the severe threat could increase. This will be something to watch through the morning and early afternoon.
The rain should clear the area by 4 or 5 PM, with the cold air lagging a couple hours behind that. As the cold air moves in, winds will turn to the west and temperatures will be quick to fall into the 40s with 30s moving in overnight. Winds will gradually diminish this evening.
Chilly Pattern
Behind this strong storm system, another period of cold weather will settle into the region.
Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. Wind gusts will stay under 30 mph, except between Rochester and Buffalo, where gusts could reach 35 mph. The wind tomorrow will be from the west and southwest.
Temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the mid and upper 40s. Wednesday will follow up with temperatures a few degrees colder, with highs in the low and mid 40s. Morning lows, however, will start in the mid and upper 20s.
Skies will also be mixed on Wednesday, but a few flurries may drift through during the morning and midday hours. Scattered snow showers will also alternate with some sunshine on Thursday. Neither day is expected to have any snow accumulation.
The pattern will continue into Friday and Saturday with clouds, a little sun, and some small chances for snow. Temperatures Wednesday-Saturday should all be between 40-45 degrees. Morning lows each day will mostly be in the 20s with a few low 30s right along the lakes.
Temperatures may moderate slightly after that, but should generally be at or below normal for most of the remainder of April.
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