A few showers Thursday, scattered severe storms Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday may 28 2020 rain tropical storm bertha severe thunderstorms friday
A few showers associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Bertha will move through today, followed by scattered severe thunderstorms on Friday. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Unsettled Summery Weather

Our first taste of summer will wrap up with a period of unsettled weather before much cooler air works in this weekend.

There are three systems at play in our weather for Thursday and Friday.

First are the remains of what was briefly Tropical Storm Bertha. Bertha made landfall shortly after development on the coast of North Carolina yesterday.

Now just a small low pressure system, the remains of Bertha are lifting north along the Ohio-Pennsylvania border this morning. Most of the rain is to the west of the low pressure center, and thus will pass us by.

However, there are scattered showers already over the Finger Lakes this morning and this will continue throughout the day. None of the rain should be heavy or long lasting.

Sunshine will be limited, though a break or two here and there will be possible. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures in the mid 70s, though it will remain muggy. Temperatures tonight will only creep downward, with overnight lows in the upper 60s.

On Friday, a cold front will approach the region late in the day. Out ahead of the front, another small disturbance will pass through. Both will trigger showers and thunderstorms, but the focus for severe storms locally will be on the pre-frontal disturbance.

This disturbance should enter the Finger Lakes during the early afternoon, giving rise to a couple of storm clusters. These clusters may occasionally become severe with scattered wind damage possible. The hail threat is minimal and tornadoes seem unlikely. The threat seems greatest over the eastern half of the Finger Lakes.

The Storm Prediction Center now has us in a Level 2 threat, which corresponds to scattered severe storms. This seems like a reasonable classification, though I could see the event unfolding in a lesser manner more suited for a Level 1- Isolated classification.

As the cold front moves in later in the afternoon, additional showers and storms are likely, especially further west, but these will occur after the peak heating and thus have less fuel to work with.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday may 28 2020
Click to enlarge

Cooler Weather Inbound

Rain will fall Friday night as the front moves through the region, clearing out before dawn Saturday.

The remainder of Saturday should be a mix of sun and clouds. A couple afternoon showers could pop up, but most areas will probably stay dry.

Temperatures will still manage to flirt with 70 degrees on primarily west winds. Those winds could gust over 25 mph at times.

Temperatures will fall well into the 40s Saturday night, setting up a cold Sunday as clouds thicken. High temperatures will only reach the low 50s, and a few higher elevations may not escape the 40s.

Some uncertainty has been introduced into the forecast for Monday in the form of a weak disturbance. This could bring a few showers in, but may also elevate temperatures into the mid 50s. Clouds associated with this system may also keep overnight temperatures in the 40s, though parts of the Southern Tier especially may still be prone to some patchy frost Sunday and Monday night.

Temperatures should return to the 60s on Tuesday with 70 possible on Wednesday with rain. The rest of next week should have temperatures remaining in that neighborhood but may trend warmer thereafter.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.