Temperatures back off for couple days, then come back hotter

finger lakes weather forecast friday july 3 2020 4th of july weekend weather heat wave
A few areas may see an afternoon thunderstorm today before a dry weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the weekend before 90s dominate next week. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

4th of July Weekend Weather

Temperatures for the first part of the 4th of July Weekend will be a bit cooler than yesterday before turning even hotter.

A small bubble of warm air over Canada moved south over the Finger Lakes yesterday and has exited the region. Cooler air will now move in from Canada along with some energy in the atmosphere.

This energy is responsible for some clouds and showers this morning and may touch off a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.

The best chance for thunderstorms will be east of I-81, but a secondary area of development over the southwestern quadrant of the Finger Lakes region is also possible. This area can be thought of as Allegany and Steuben counties and the immediate surrounding areas.

Outside of these two hot spots, rain will still be possible today, but showers and storms will be few and far between. Any storms that develop today will have a small chance for some isolated strong winds.

Temperatures will top out mostly in the low and mid 80s this afternoon. Saturday will follow suit with highs in the mid 80s.

Rain is not expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in. The typical afternoon fair-weather clouds are likely, along with some thin cirrus clouds.

Winds today will be from the northwest and north at 5-10 mph. Tomorrow’s winds will be similar.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 3 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Up the Heat

By Sunday, warmer air will move in aloft and will translate to the surface with another sunny day. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s with a few areas hitting 90 degrees.

Sunshine will continue to dominate the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as temperatures really start to increase.

Most of the Finger Lakes should break into the 90s on Monday. Even higher elevations should reach the low 90s on Tuesday with widespread mid 90s likely. Some areas along I-90 will see highs in the upper 90s and a reading or two of 100 degrees is not out of the question.

Dewpoints that far in advance are tricky to nail down, but the humidity does not look oppressive so far.

By Wednesday and Thursday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible. Any storms will of course bring some relief to the heat, but it will still be plenty hot before any storms fire. Mid 90s look possible on Wednesday with low 90s on Thursday.

Sometime on Friday or Saturday, a cold front will move through and break the heat. If the front is delayed until Saturday, expect a final day of 90s on Friday.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.