Labor Day showers and storms

finger lakes weather forecast monday sepetember 7 2020 labor day showers thunderstorms
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of the Finger Lakes today, bringing our best chance for rain this week. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Unsettled Holiday

An area of low pressure passing to our north today will bring gusty winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The low is situated north of the Upper Great Lakes this morning with a well-defined cold front extending south into Michigan, then kinking back to the west through northern Indiana and Illinois.

Thunderstorms last night over the Upper Great Lakes have made their way into western New York this morning as an area of widespread rain. As this rain continues east this morning, it should rapidly fall apart and dissipate.

Areas west of Cayuga Lake will likely see some rain this morning, but to the east, only a few scattered showers should remain.

South winds kicked in last night and will strengthen further this morning. Gusts will approach 40 mph through the morning and afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms will redevelop, possibly as early as the late morning, and continue through the afternoon and into the early evening hours.

Most areas should see rain at some point today, except for areas around, south, and east of Ithaca. Rain in these areas will be harder to come by, but a few scattered showers will still be possible.

Severe weather is not expected, though a few stronger thunderstorm gusts will be possible. Localized areas of heavy rain will also be possible. Localized fog will develop tonight in the wake of the rain.

Today’s temperatures will mostly be in the low 80s, though there is some uncertainty due to the clouds and morning showers.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 7 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

The Rest of the Week

The cold front triggering today’s rain will never make it through the Finger Lakes. Instead, the low will lift north, further into Canada, and the front will gradually dissipate and be pushed back north as a warm front in the Upper Great Lakes.

As this happens, a stray shower or two may drift through the Finger Lakes on Tuesday. For the most part, though, it will just be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.

Wind will generally be from the south tomorrow and much lighter than today. Part of the front may sneak into the northern Finger Lakes briefly during the afternoon, causing winds to turn to the north near and north of I-90.

Temperatures should reach into the mid 80s tomorrow for most of the region. Dewpoints will be in the 60s, so it will feel muggy as well.

South winds will hold the warm, muggy air in place for Wednesday. With plenty of sunshine, upper 80s will become more common and a few places could hit 90 degrees. A lake breeze late in the day will cool the Lake Ontario counties back into the 70s.

A cold front will move through the region on Thursday with just a few scattered showers and storms. Many places will probably see little to no rain.

Winds will turn to the northwest and temperatures will start to fall. Morning lows will start in the 70s, but by the afternoon, mid 60s will overtake the region.

Friday will be chilly behind the front with highs only in the mid 60s despite ample sunshine.

Temperatures should bounce back into the 70s next weekend with rain possible later Sunday into Monday.

Local Radar

Check the latest radar and current weather conditions with the FLX Weather interactive, mobile-friendly radar page. Just click this image!

finger lakes interactive weather radar

Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Kelly Doolittle

    Hey Drew – this seems like a particularly hot and dry summer to me. Can you tell me what the average rainfall for the Southern Cayuga county is, and how this year’s summer has shaped up in comparison? The Binghamton model says there has been average rainfall, but I’m wondering if that’s true for my area. It sure doesn’t seem like it.

    Thanks for any help!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      S. Cayuga county was about 2-4 inches below normal for the last 90 days (roughly corresponding to “summer”). That is about 50-75% (probably closer to 75%) of the normal rainfall during that time.