Warming South Winds
High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather for one more day before a cold front moves through.
South winds on the backside of the high and ahead of the front have kept most areas from getting nearly as cold as yesterday. These winds will also help give temperatures a boost today.
Wind speeds will be around 10 mph today, with gusts around 25 mph.
Skies will be clear, except for the continued presence of upper atmosphere smoke. Temperatures yesterday were a couple degrees cooler than forecast, thanks to the smoke, so expectations for today need to be nudged down slightly.
A few areas will still approach 80 degrees, namely in Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties. Mid 70s will be more common.
The wind speed will not drop much this evening, though the wind direction may become more southwesterly. Temperatures will drop through the 60s and into the 50s, with the northern half of the region staying in the upper 50s, while the south sees mid and low 50s.
Scattered clouds will drift through overnight, but no rain is expected until the front moves in early Thursday.
Cold Front Sets Up Chilly Weekend
The cold front will slide through the Finger Lakes during the first half of the day tomorrow with little fanfare. Rain showers will be few and far between, and even those that see rain will not see much.
Perhaps the most noticeable aspect of the frontal passage will be the clearing out of the smoke as our air starts getting sourced from Canada on north winds. The wind will not be overly strong, with speeds under 10 mph and gusts only 15-20 mph.
Skies will be rather cloudy, but breaks of sunshine and increasingly blue skies are likely, especially in the afternoon.
Temperatures will not be able to rise beyond the low and mid 60s before the front moves through tomorrow morning. The one exception will be from Elmira to Ithaca to Cortland, and areas southeast. Upper 60s and low 70s will be possible here before the front tumbles temperatures. Most of the afternoon will be spent in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Mostly clear skies will return as early as Thursday night and persist through the weekend and into next week. Some occasional clouds may pass through, but by and large, it will just be sunny.
The smoke models only simulate 48 hours into the future, but the upper level wind pattern looks as though it will stay northerly through the weekend. This should prevent the smoke plume from returning to our region, but time will tell if that is truly the case.
The clear skies will lead to several cold mornings with chances for frost. Friday morning lows should mostly stick to the 40s, but 30s will become more widespread Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and possibly even Tuesday morning.
Daytime highs through the weekend will also be cool. Friday will be in the upper 50s to near 60 with mid and upper 50s Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will slowly creep back upward early next week, with highs approaching 60 on Monday, into the low 60s Tuesday, and finally jumping back into the 70s Wednesday.
The next chance for rain looks to be late next week, but that is only showing on about half of the European Model Ensembles, which means it cannot be counted on to actually happen.
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