Windy, wet Wednesday as cold front moves through

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 7 2020 cold front wind advisories rain thunder
A cold front will bring strong winds, rain, and possibly some thunder to the Finger Lakes today. Cool air will only last through Thursday, though. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Wind Advisories

A strong cold front will move through the Finger Lakes today with rain, wind, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

An area of widespread showers out ahead of the front will make its way through the Finger Lakes this morning. Expect a couple hours of rain with generally modest to light amounts.

South winds will be blustery, but not too strong ahead of and during this area of rain. Behind the rain, winds will turn more westerly and increase for the afternoon.

Wind speeds will build to 15-20 mph, but gusts will increase to 40-50 mph.

Additionally, a few downpours may develop this afternoon, which could locally enhance the wind speeds. A couple severe thunderstorm warnings may need to be issued, even if there is infrequent, or even no lightning with the cells.

A few sporadic instances of wind damage or localized power outages cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures today will only make it into the low 60s despite a relatively mild start to the day, thanks to the rain and influx of cool air on the gusty winds this afternoon.

Tonight, the wind will diminish but not completely die off as it turns more northwesterly. Overnight gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range with gusts to 30 mph east of Cayuga Lake.

Clouds and a broken band of showers off Lake Ontario will hold temperatures mostly in the 40s.

Northwest winds will pick up a bit once the sun is up on Thursday, with gusts of 25-35 mph. The strongest winds will remain east of Cayuga Lake.

Lake enhanced cloud cover will hang thick through the morning before slowly breaking up over the course of the afternoon. A few spits of rain or drizzle will be possible in the morning.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low and mid 50s on Thursday. Partially clearing skies will lead to upper 30s and low 40s Thursday night, but winds will be turning to the south, preventing colder temperatures.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday october 7 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Weather and Next Week Uncertainties

If you liked the weather yesterday, then you will love Friday.

High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic, bringing sunshine and mild weather back to the region. Temperatures should top out in the mid 60s for most areas.

South and southwest winds will increase Friday night, keeping temperatures in the 50s or even low 60s. That will get us off and running for Saturday, with highs reaching well into the 70s.

Clouds will increase later Saturday and a few showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. These showers will be along a cold front that should push through Saturday night.

Cooler air will settle back in at least for Sunday, with highs probably ending up in the upper 50s. Cooler air will not be far to the north, and warmer air will be just to the south, so even a slight shift in the pattern could result in colder or warmer temperatures.

By Sunday, the remains of Hurricane Delta will also be tracking northeast. The path of this rain remains uncertain, both in its track and its timing. If the rain moves through, whether it be later Sunday, Sunday night, or even Monday or Monday night, it does not look as though it will be too heavy.

The remains of Delta will not only impact how our early week weather evolves, but what pattern takes shape behind Delta is also quite uncertain. The models continue to look chaotic next week, with large variations in expected temperatures and little consensus on when and how much rain will be possible.

In cases like these, it is best to take a step back and await more information before making any firm conclusions. That being said, it seems like we will probably get rain again at some point next week, preceded by warmer temperatures and followed by a cool down.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.