Strengthening Low Moves Overhead
An area of low pressure will track northeast and pass over the Finger Lakes late today while increasing in intensity.
However, with the path of the low overhead, the impacts of this system will be lessened in our region.
Rain is starting to spread across the Finger Lakes early this morning as the low tracks northeast along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Once the rain begins, it should fall steadily through the morning.
By the midday or early afternoon hours, the steady rain should transition to on and off showers. Areas west of I-390 may hold on to the steady rain further into the afternoon.
The showers will become less as the low moves in late in the day. Dry air wrapping around the backside of the low will move in this evening, ending most of the rain.
The strongest winds with this system will be to the east of the center of low pressure. Gusts of 50 mph will be possible well east of the Finger Lakes, while locally, the best chance for gusts even reaching 30 mph will be along and east of I-81.
For most areas, wind gusts will top out today between 20-30 mph from the southeast and east. These gusts will coincide with the steadier rain. Winds will drop this afternoon and may even become nearly calm as the low passes overhead late in the day.
The last factor to consider with the path of the low is temperatures. A wide range is expected, from low 40s along I-390 to low 50s in Tioga, Cortland, and possibly Tompkins counties. The temperature gradient will be rather tight, so a trip across the region today will result in a noticeable difference.
Behind the Low
The low will continue northeast toward the Adirondacks tonight before redeveloping to the west along the north shore of Lake Ontario. The low will sit there from tomorrow morning into Wednesday before it slowly tracks northeast along the St. Lawrence River.
This pattern will lead to gradually falling temperatures across our region, along with bouts of precipitation.
For most of Tuesday, the precipitation will be on the lighter side and should remain rain. Snow will start to mix in over the western Southern Tier first, followed by other higher elevations during the afternoon. All precipitation will transition to snow Tuesday night.
Temperatures Tuesday will start in the low 40s for most of the region. Little change is expected through the morning, but a drop into the 30s is likely for the afternoon. The colder air will move in from the southwest.
Winds will be stronger tomorrow as well, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts closer to 30 mph.
Widespread snow showers will continue through Wednesday. Lake enhancement will give a few localized bands an extra burst.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be near or below 35 degrees, so some accumulations will be possible.
A coating to an inch may stick Tuesday night, with locally a couple inches falling Wednesday. The best chance for accumulations will be in the hills south of Syracuse and the western Southern Tier.
Snow will be a much bigger issue just west of our region. Colder temperatures and a constant flow of cold, moist air over Lake Erie will produce large amounts of snow along the shore. Traveling I-90 from areas south of Buffalo all the way to the west of Cleveland will be difficult with localized amounts over 18” possible through Wednesday.
Precipitation will end Wednesday night and some sunshine may build in for early Thursday.
However, the overall pattern looks unsettled late in the week as a few small disturbances pass through. None of these should bring large amounts of precipitation or lake effect, but clouds will remain plentiful and scattered showers and flurries will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will mostly be in the 30s or low 40s this week and weekend, but colder temperatures are possible next week.
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