Week starts with spits of snow but ends mild

finger lakes weather forecast monday janaury 11 2021 snow showers mild warming trend
Snow showers will bring a dusting of accumulation to some early this week before temperatures rise into the 40s. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Light Snow Chances

A small impulse of atmospheric energy will pass through the region today, bringing some light snow today and lake effect behind it.

At 7 AM, this feature was located over Lake Erie and Ohio on its trek eastward. Clouds are already thick ahead of the system with light south winds holding temperatures in the mid 20s.

A quick shot of light snow will be possible during the late morning and midday hours. The northern half of the region has the best shot at seeing some of this snow, though everyone has at least a chance for some snowflakes.

At most, a half-inch may fall, just enough to coat the ground. Most areas will not even see that much.

Behind the snow, a little sun may poke out for the latter half of the afternoon. Most areas will see highs in the mid 30s today, though a few upper 30s are possible in the Rochester area, and maybe as far as Dansville and Penn Yan.

Winds will turn to the west-southwest tonight. A few flurries off Lake Erie will develop and skirt across the northern portions of the region. Areas along and north of I-90 have the best shot at seeing flurries overnight. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Outside of the lake flakes, skies will remain mostly cloudy, though a few breaks in the clouds will be possible in the Southern Tier. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s in the lake effect areas to the low 20s in the south.

Flurries will continue in the north Tuesday morning, but an afternoon wind shift will send a spray of snow showers through the region. Again, no more than a light dusting of snow accumulation is expected.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week, with highs around 30 for most and in the mid 30s for the I-90 corridor.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday January 11 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warming Trend

The second half of the week will be characterized by mostly quiet conditions and increasing temperatures.

Southwest winds will develop on Wednesday and start to import the milder air. Combined with partly cloudy skies, temperatures should range from the upper 30s in higher elevations to the low 40s from Rochester to Penn Yan to Syracuse.

A weak disturbance will pass to the north late Wednesday night and early Thursday. A stray flurry or shower cannot be totally ruled out, but most areas will stay dry.

Sunshine will filter through some thin clouds and mix with some thicker clouds during the day Thursday. South and southwest winds will persist, driving temperatures into the mid 40s for most.

Skies will be mixed again on Friday, though clouds may thicken up as the day goes on. No precipitation is expected during the daytime hours, but some showers may move in for the evening.

South and southeast winds will increase with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. Temperatures will range through the 40s, but some low 50s along I-90 may be possible.

Cooler weather will slowly work back in this weekend, with highs Saturday around 40 while Sunday sees low and mid 30s. Some lake effect may flare up from Sunday night through early Tuesday on west winds.

Despite a lot of hype about the Polar Vortex and East Coast Storms next week, a significant change in our weather pattern seems highly unlikely. Daily high temperatures are very likely to remain in the 30s or possibly upper 20s for the duration of next week.  Snow continues to look scarce as well, with no major threats showing.

There may be a chance for colder weather the week after that, but I remain skeptical at this very early stage.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday January 11 2021This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.