Elevated temperatures Thursday-Friday ahead of gradual change

finger lakes weather forecast thursday january 14 2021 cloudy snow showers mild lake effect
Temperatures will be near or above 40 for most areas today and tomorrow before a gradual turn toward colder air. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

A Bit Warmer

A small disturbance is passing through the Southern Tier this morning but will have little impact on our sight warming trend.

Most of the precipitation this morning is falling across the counties that border Pennsylvania. Much is falling as snow, but some rain may be mixing in at times. Locally a half-inch could accumulate, but most areas will see less than that, if any accumulations at all.

Further north, a flurry cannot be ruled out, but for the most part, it will just be a cloudy and dry morning.

Clouds will persist into the afternoon, but precipitation will come to an end. High temperatures will be around or just above 40 for many areas with upper 30s in higher elevations.

The thick clouds low in the atmosphere will break up and move out overnight, but a deck of thin, higher atmosphere clouds will quickly fill in. Some sunshine may be able to filter through this overcast Friday morning, but it seems unlikely that it will be overly sunny.

Temperatures will start Friday within a degree or two on either side of 30 degrees. Increasing southeast winds will help warm temperatures with mid 40s along the I-90 corridor with mostly low 40s elsewhere.

Winds Friday will become blustery with gusts of 25-35 mph.

A few rain showers may enter in from the southwest near sunset, with precipitation overspreading the Finger Lakes throughout Friday evening. Most will fall as rain, but snow will begin to mix in over higher elevations before midnight.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday january 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Gradual Wintry Turn

By Saturday morning, low pressure will be strengthening over eastern New York as its track turns more northward and less eastward.

This should keep precipitation lingering over the eastern half of the region for at least early Saturday morning. Most of this will fall as snow. The snow should pull out to the east by the late morning or midday hours.

An inch or two of accumulation can be expected Friday night in the hills of the Southern Tier and Saturday morning for areas in the east. The one-inch line in snow amounts should set up somewhere between Cayuga Lake and I-81. The best chance for several inches will come in the higher elevations of Cortland and southern Onondaga counties.

High temperatures Saturday will still manage the mid and upper 30s for most areas, although the aforementioned higher elevations may stick to the low 30s, especially if there is a coating of new snow.

Lake effect snow showers will start to kick in Saturday night on gusty west winds. Scattered snow showers should be expected throughout Sunday and Monday, as winds very gradually become more northwesterly and speeds drop. The snow should end Monday night.

Favored lake effect areas in the western Southern Tier and from Wayne to Onondaga county could see a few inches fall during this time.

A small disturbance will bring some additional snow showers later Tuesday, followed by another round of lake snows on Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout this time will range from the mid 20s into the low 30s.

A storm system will likely develop somewhere over the Eastern United States late next week. Behind this system, a reinforcing and longer lasting shot of cold air looks possible. This does not look to be an extreme cold, but consistent highs in the 20s seem likely.

With the colder air, lake effect snow will at least become more of a possibility, as will snowy weather systems. There are no specific threats to mention though, as it is simply way too far in advance to do so.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday january 14 2021This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.