Chaotic weather week ahead

finger lakes weather forecast monday march 29 2021 clouds sun warm up cold front april fools snow
Skies will clear this afternoon and temperatures will warm tomorrow, but a midweek cold front has snow back in the forecast. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warming Trend

A busy Springtime weather pattern will unfold across the Finger Lakes this week.

To start the week, low pressure over far northern New England will continue to pull away as high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes builds in to take its place.

The transition between these two systems will split our day today in two.

First, this morning will be cloudy and breezy. Northwest winds will gust over 30 mph, and for the I-81 corridor, over 40 mph.

A few scattered flurries will also be possible, mostly early in the morning.

By the afternoon, winds will begin to diminish and skies will transition from completely overcast to completely clear. The sunshine will help temperatures warm a bit, but most highs will still only manage the low and mid 40s.

Clear skies and calm winds early this evening will send temperatures falling to the upper 20s to near 30, but then winds will turn to the south and increase. Temperatures will start to rise, reaching the low and mid 30s by dawn Tuesday.

Sun-filled skies and south winds will boost temperatures in a hurry tomorrow, and by the afternoon, highs should range through the 60s. Mid and upper 60s will be possible along I-90 and especially near Rochester. Low to perhaps mid 60s are expected further south.

The wind will be gusty tomorrow afternoon, peaking at around 35 mph. Relative humidity values will drop below 40%. The dry air, warm temperatures, and gusty winds will lead to an elevated brush fire risk.

Temperatures will remain in the mid 40s to low 50s Tuesday night. Clouds will gradually increase.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday march 29 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Mother Nature’s April Fool’s Prank

March will come to a close on Wednesday with a powerful cold front moving through the region.

A few rain showers will be possible during the much of the day before rain increases ahead of the front late in the afternoon. Clouds and showers should hold temperatures to the mid and upper 50s, but if any sun manages to work out, it could be warmer.

As the front moves through, winds will turn to the northwest and temperatures will rapidly fall into the low 40s.

During the evening, temperatures will continue to fall into the 30s as low pressure develops along the front to our east and tracks northward. Precipitation will increase across the area, likely falling as snow.

There is a good chance for accumulating snow Wednesday night and possibly well into Thursday morning. There is still high uncertainty on exactly how much snow falls, though. Late season storms like this are highly temperature dependent, and the path of the developing low will have a huge influence on amounts.

At this time, you should expect to wake up to snow on the ground and roads Thursday morning with the possibility for moderate to heavy snow ongoing. A shovelable and plowable snow is well within the reasonable realm of possibility.

Snow showers will gradually taper off on Thursday, though gusty winds will likely keep blowing and drifting the snow. High temperatures will likely be in the lower half of the 30s.

After Mother Nature pulls this stunt on us, it will not be long before she allows springtime weather to return. Highs Friday will push into the upper 30s with some sun, and Saturday should return to near 50 degrees.

A few rain showers will be possible on Sunday, but temperatures should continue to warm into the 50s.

At this time, next week’s weather looks more stable, with fewer chances for precipitation and temperatures staying on the milder side.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday march 29 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.