A boundary draped across the Finger Lakes will serve as a focal point for rain and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Several waves of atmospheric energy have already ridden along this boundary, bringing a few showers yesterday afternoon and more widespread precipitation through the predawn hours.
The second batch of rain is still working its way north of the region and areas of showers still linger. These will depart by the mid-morning hours, leaving us with a brief window of dry weather later this morning.
Clouds should remain thick through the morning and into the afternoon. This will limit our heating today, which in turn will put a cap on the severe potential this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low 70s.
Still, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop, starting as early as noontime. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon, possibly moving repeatedly over the same areas.
A couple storms may briefly contain strong or even damaging winds. The severe threat is expected to be very limited, though.
The atmosphere is laden with moisture, and any storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain. If multiple storms of this nature move over the same area, some flooding could be a concern. Limiting the flood potential is our recent dry weather, though. Urban areas and steep terrain will be most prone to localized flooding.
These threats will wane as the sun sets, but scattered showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm will linger into the evening hours, especially across the southern and eastern halves of the region.
Heat Wave Building
Clouds may linger into Friday morning, but an increase in sunshine is expected by the afternoon. A few more showers and storms may be triggered by the daytime heating. Any activity that gets going should remain isolated and non-severe.
Otherwise, temperatures Friday will make a jump into the upper 70s and low 80s. As is usually the case, and will be repeatedly over the coming days, northern areas will generally be warmer than southern areas.
Saturday should be a quiet day with a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower or afternoon thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out. Most areas will remain dry, though.
Temperatures Saturday will start out near 60 degrees and push into the 80s. A few areas could see upper 80s, again primarily in the north.
By Sunday, the heat will be on in full force. Many areas will at least approach, if not exceed 90 degrees. Skies will be sunny with few if any clouds Dewpoints will be well into the 60s, making it feel muggy, too.
Monday will be more of the same, though a few more afternoon clouds will bubble up. Highs will again be near 90, with many northern areas over 90 degrees.
A small disturbance may drop into the area on Tuesday, introducing the chance for some afternoon thunderstorms. With all the heat and humidity, these storms will need to be watched for at least a localized, brief severe threat, even if the overall conditions for severe storms is low.
With the chances for rain, highs will likely be a couple degrees cooler. Still, I expect a few places to reach 90 degrees, with upper 80s for most areas.
There will be no relief behind Tuesday’s disturbance. In fact, Wednesday looks a couple degrees hotter than Sunday or Monday with widespread 90s and possibly oppressive humidity.
Thursday will be the transition day as a cold front moves into the area. It is much too early to speculate on severe thunderstorm chances, but like Tuesday, there will be plenty of fuel to at least consider a localized severe threat.
Temperatures will retreat back to the 70s behind the front for next weekend and possibly much of the following week as well.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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