Sun, clouds, and warming temperatures

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday june 23 2021 sun clouds
Clouds will increase today, but sunnier skies are likely Thursday and Friday as temperatures quickly start to warm. Hot weather will not be far behind. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Late Week Weather

An area of high pressure to the south will keep control of our weather for the next couple days.

Skies are mixed to start our Wednesday as a disturbance rides along the northern periphery of the high. There is only one shower showing on the radar, so the chances for rain this morning are very low.

Additional clouds will develop this morning once temperatures have had a chance to rise. These clouds will primarily be driven by the difference between the warming temperatures are the surface and the remaining chilly air aloft.

The clouds should become numerous by the late morning and remain as such through the mid afternoon. A brief, isolated spit of rain cannot be ruled out.

As we begin to lose the daytime heating late in the day, the clouds will dissipate, and skies should be mostly clear by sunset.

Highs today will mostly reach the low 70s, though a few higher elevations may stick to the upper 60s. A few mid 70s in Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties will also be possible.

Skies will be mostly clear through the night, but temperatures will not be as chilly as a south wind starts to pick up. The best chance for sub-50 degree temperatures will be in cooler pockets of the Southern Tier and Central New York. Closer to Lake Ontario, overnight lows will be in the low 50s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the south wind continues to increase. Gusts during the daytime hours could approach 30 mph.

The sun and south winds will continue to boost temperatures. The southern half of the region should be in the upper 70s with low 80s to the north. The Rochester area could approach 85 degrees.

Friday will be more of the same, though with an increase in thin clouds high in the atmosphere. South winds will remain blustery. Highs will mostly be in the low and mid 80s, but again, the Rochester area will be warmer and could approach 90 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday june 23 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Hot

Temperatures will take a brief step back on Saturday as a warm front moves through the area with scattered showers. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures to the upper 70s.

The rain on Saturday looks scattered, so there will be periods of time when it is not raining. However, the rain will be around throughout the day.

Saturday’s winds will also increase even further, still coming from the south. Top gusts will be in the 30 to 40 mph range.

By Sunday, the warm front will be well to the north and the associated cold front will stall out far to our west.

South winds, which will still gust to 30 mph, will push heat and humidity into the area. Sunny skies will also aide in the warming.

Afternoon dewpoints will be in the mid and upper 60s while daytime highs reach or exceed 90 degrees for many areas. Monroe, Wayne, and northern Ontario counties could even push into the mid 90s.

The air aloft will also be warm, which is unfavorable for thunderstorm development. Additionally, there will be nothing to trigger storms. Therefore, despite the hot and steamy day, no rain is expected.

The front will creep eastward early next week, and a few scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Individual storms cells will probably not last too long but could briefly become strong just by nature of the hot and humid air in place. The chances for storms will probably increase slightly each day.

Temperatures on Monday will be just as hot as on Sunday with widespread low 90s and pockets approaching 95 degrees. Tuesday will still see many areas near 90, but fewer getting far above. Wednesday will see mostly mid and upper 80s as showers and storms become more common.

By Thursday and Friday, the front will be sliding into our area, increasing the chances for showers and storms. Highs should remain in the 80s.

Monday Tornado Confirmed

A quick note on Monday’s storms. Late yesterday, the National Weather Service confirmed that a tornado touched down just south of Dryden in Tompkins County. This tornado was on the ground for 2.8 miles and had estimated peak winds of 90 mph, making it an EF-1 rating.

This was not the same storm that impacted Stewart Park in Ithaca. That damage was caused by a microburst, not a tornado.

I hope to have more on this tomorrow.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday june 23 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.