Unsettled pattern continues with thundery downpours

finger lakes weather forecast friday july 2 2021 rain showers thundery downpours 4th of july weekend weather
Thundery downpours will rumble through the Finger Lakes again today before a gradual, but temporary decrease in rain chances. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Stalled Low

An area of low pressure along the southern coast of New England will only slowly drift for the next couple days, keeping our weather unsettled.

A few batches of scattered showers and storms continued from yesterday through last night. Early this morning, most of the rain was just outside of the Finger Lakes region across portions of Western and Central New York.

As the morning goes on, the radar should start to fill back in as new areas of rain develop. By the afternoon, showers and thundery downpours will be numerous, though a few areas will probably sneak by with little to no rain.

Showers will continue into the evening but will gradually diminish. Like last night, there will probably be a couple areas of rain that linger through the overnight and into tomorrow morning.

Since the rain today will be of the pop-up variety, it is impossible to pinpoint what areas may get rain and at what time. Chances are high that it will rain at some point today wherever you are with the possibility of several hours of rain.

There is a small chance for some localized flooding should an area see a downpour sit for a lengthy amount of time, or if several downpours move through the same location repeatedly. Severe weather is not expected today.

Winds will be light from the northwest. The wind and ample cloud cover will hold temperatures to around 70 degrees today. Dewpoints will be near or slightly above 60, keeping the atmosphere on the muggy side.

Tomorrow will see more of the same with a couple of key differences.

First, the focal point for rain should be over the eastern half of the region. Showers will still be possible to the west, but they should be more scattered than further east.

Second, the chances for lightning and downpours will decrease. This is a good thing, as the rain will probably be slower moving tomorrow and more likely to sit in the same place for a lengthy amount of time.

Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, but more areas will probably reach into the low 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Drying Out…Kinda

The weather will become less active as we head through Sunday and Monday. However, that does not mean the chances for rain will completely disappear.

Sunday should at least start out with a mix of sun and clouds. Most areas will remain partly cloudy through the afternoon. There will be a couple of pop-up showers though. These will be most common in the afternoon and should quickly dissipate late in the day.

Temperatures will start to rise with highs on Sunday reaching the mid and upper 70s. Monday will be warmer yet, with highs ranging through the 80s. As usual, the warmest areas will be in the lake plain south of Lake Ontario, while the cooler temperatures will be in the higher elevations.

The chances for rain will be lowest on Monday. Only a couple isolated afternoon showers or storms are expected. Most areas should remain rain-free throughout the day.

Temperatures will peak on Tuesday with a few places flirting with 90 degrees. However, an approaching cold front should trigger some afternoon showers and storms, putting a cap on how hot it will be able to get.

Showers will linger behind the front on Wednesday with more chances for rain on Thursday and Friday next week. An active pattern will continue thereafter, keeping the chances for rain elevated and the opportunities for completely dry days low.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.