Flash Flooding Concerns
A frontal boundary is stalled out across the region this morning and will remain in the general vicinity for the next couple of days.
Warm, exceedingly moisture laden air to the south of the front will be ripe for thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially as small disturbances pass along the front.
After the rain that fell yesterday and caused flooding in several areas, the flooding risk will remain elevated, especially in the southeastern quadrant of the Finger Lakes.
Radar estimated rainfall from Sunday and Sunday night across the Finger Lakes. Numerous flooding reports were received within the two cores of heaviest rain, shown in blue.
These two factors will limit how much energy the atmosphere has to work with this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity may be limited across the region as a result, which would be good news. Not all models keep the area storm-free, though.
If there are showers and storms this afternoon, they will be most likely across the southern half of the region. The storms would likely start to pop-up in the 1-3 PM timeframe and would exit between 6-8 PM.
Any storms that do develop will have the potential for torrential downpours which could easily cause additional flooding issues, especially for areas that were hit hard yesterday and overnight. In addition to the flooding risk, a few isolated storms could become severe with damaging winds.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s this afternoon with dewpoints not far behind near 70.
Additional showers will be possible overnight. Again, any heavier downpours will need to be watched for some localized flooding potential. Lows will be in the upper 60s.
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon both look stormier with warmer air in place. Highs both days should be into the low 80s.
Like today, the storms will carry both a heavy rain risk and a damaging wind risk. Locally hazardous conditions are likely, even if most areas probably will not see severe weather or serious flooding.
There are sure to be additional small details for how Tuesday and Wednesday will unfold that are not yet clear, so be sure to continue to check for updates each morning.
Pattern Quiets
By Thursday, the frontal boundary should have moved on and a new pattern will set up across the region.
Temperatures will remain warm with highs Thursday into the mid 80s. The current expectation is for dry weather, though a stray pop-up shower cannot be totally dismissed this far in advance.
There may be a better chance for some late showers and storms Friday as a cold front approaches. Ahead of the front, much of the day will be partly cloudy with highs into the upper 80s. A few areas could broach 90 degrees.
Temperatures will retreat to the 70s on Saturday behind the front. Dry conditions are expected with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday, too, looks dry with highs returning to the low 80s.
At least the first half of next week looks to be mainly dry with highs sticking to the low 80s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Monthly Donations Getting Lost
