Showers bubble up this afternoon, linger into Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 9 2021 sun clouds showers lake effect
An incoming disturbance will kick off showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon before Lake Ontario takes over with some early season lake effect tonight. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Scattered Showers

Another disturbance will move into the Finger Lakes this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through yesterday.

This disturbance is rotating around the parent low, which is located to our north well into Canada. The low will slowly pivot eastward today, dragging the disturbance along with it.

The day is starting sunny for the western half of the region, while some clouds lingering behind the slow-moving cold front are spread across the eastern Finger Lakes. It will be a race against the clock to see if these clouds clear out before daytime heating kicks in and puffy cumulus clouds start to pop up.

The sky will become more cloudy than not this afternoon as scattered showers begin to develop. Individual shower cells will be on the small side, but many areas will see multiple showers through the afternoon and early evening.

A couple of the cells could become intense enough for a little lightning or some very small hail. Brief downpours with these cells are also likely.

The intensity of the showers will drop this evening, but Lake Ontario will contribute moisture and energy to keep the showers going overnight and into early Friday.

Winds will be changeable today, starting out from the southwest this morning before turning to the west before midday. This afternoon, as the disturbance passes through, winds will become northwesterly and remain there through tonight.

The southwest and west winds, combined with the areas of sunshine, will push temperatures into the low 70s by the early afternoon. Little to no additional heating is expected thereafter as clouds increase, winds shift, and showers begin. Temperatures tonight will settle into the mid 50s.

Clouds and showers will continue into Friday morning, but as the daytime heating kicks in, the lake effect will dissipate. Dry air moving into the region will also help end the showers and should lead to some afternoon sunshine.

Northwest winds will be a bit blustery, with gusts near or over 25 mph. Cool air will continue to settle in on these winds with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 9 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Near to Above Average Temperatures

The wind will swing back around the southwest Friday night. At first, the wind will be weak. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low and mid 50s despite the wind shift. However, the wind will help it warm up Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s under a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday will have another small disturbance move into the area. Much of the day will be dry, but late in the afternoon, some showers and storms will pop up. These look like they may continue into the evening hours before tapering off overnight.

Temperatures should at least make it into the mid 70s, though several areas of upper 70s or even low 80s will be possible. Since the disturbance will be dropping in from the north, it will be the Southern Tier that stays sunny longest and thus has the best shot at breaking into the low 80s.

Monday will be a touch cooler behind that system with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures will start to warm again almost immediately, with mid 70s Tuesday and low 80s, at least, on Wednesday. Monday should be dry, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out Tuesday or Wednesday. Most areas will not see rain, though.

The latter half of next week looks uncertain, but it too could end up mostly dry and warm. If it does remain dry, highs on Thursday and Friday could soar into the mid and upper 80s with a few low 90s not out of the question.

However, if rain is more prevalent late in the week, highs will be held in check with upper 70s and low 80s more likely.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 9 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.