Chilly Monday leads into mild mid-week

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 18 2021 chilly lake effect rain showers
Scattered showers will accompany blustery winds to keep temperatures near or even below 50 degrees today. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Breezy, Raw Monday

The storm system that moved through the region over the weekend will bring us one more day of chilly, breezy, unsettled weather.

A series of disturbances are rotating around the backside of the low and over our region. As each disturbance moves through, rain showers are enhanced. More scattered lake effect showers then follow.

One such disturbance moved through during the predawn hours and the lake effect is just starting to develop in its wake. Cayuga, Cortland, southern Onondaga, and eastern Tompkins counties are the most likely areas to see continuing showers this morning from the lake effect.

Another disturbance will pass east this morning but will help bring colder air aloft down into the region. This should help fuel at least some scattered showers into the afternoon, again with the eastern Finger Lakes the most likely area.

Further west, some breaks of sunshine will be possible. An occasional shower may fall, but they will be fewer and farther between than to the east.

Western areas should also be both warmer and windier today. Gusts outside of the lake effect areas will be between 30-35 mph, while to the east gusts will be 25-30 mph. These winds will be from the northwest.

Temperatures for most of the region will be near or just above 50, but the higher elevations of southeastern Cayuga, southern Onondaga, eastern Tompkins, and Cortland Counties will only see highs in the mid and upper 40s.

Skies will gradually clear tonight, though some eastern areas may hold on to clouds and stray showers deep into the overnight. Northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph before turning to the west just before dawn.

Temperatures will be in the mid 40s for the immediate lake shores with low 40s near, but not immediately adjacent to the lakes. Throughout the Southern Tier, lows will drop into the upper 30s with isolated pockets of mid 30s. Where the clouds hang on longer toward Cortland County, lows will be around 40 but with isolated cooler pockets.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 18 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quickly Warming Up

By the time the sun rises Tuesday, warmer air will quickly be moving in aloft. With the predawn wind shift, skies should be sunny from the start.

There will be few if any clouds on Tuesday with start to finish clear skies. Winds will stay steady at around 10 mph from a generally westerly direction.

These factors should lead to rapid warming through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Many areas should get into the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon with highs elevations topping out near 60.

Despite mostly clear skies, Tuesday night will not be nearly as chilly. Most areas should stay near or above 50 degrees.

Wednesday will also be sunny, but with a few more thin clouds from time to time. Upper 60s will become widespread, with higher elevations reaching a high near 65.

Our next weather system rolls in on Thursday. A few showers will be possible Wednesday night or early Thursday, but the better chance for rain will come Thursday afternoon or evening. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible but remain uncertain.

Cooler air will move back in for Friday with highs in the low 50s. A few morning showers will be possible.

The weekend looks unsettled at this early juncture, with rain possible both Saturday and Sunday. If this holds, temperatures will be kept cool with highs in the low 50s.

An up and down pattern or near average to above average temperatures looks likely to hold through the final week of October. By the time we get to the end of the month, though, average highs are in the low 50s and average lows are in the mid 30s.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 18 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.